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Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Wild-Card Odds

Moneyline: Miami Dolphins +195, Kansas City Chiefs -240
Spread: Dolphins +4.5 (-110), Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 43.5 points (-110)

NFL Wild-Card Round Schedule – Game info - Dolphins at Chiefs 

2023-24 NFL Wild-Card Round Game
Miami Dolphins (11-6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Date: Saturday, Jan. 13
Time: 8 p.m. ET

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead in Kansas City, Mo.
TV Channel: Peacock
Live Stream: fuboTV, NFL+

The fact that the Kansas City Chiefs have a home playoff game in January is hardly a shock, but this team’s journey to the 2023-24 NFL postseason was much messier than what most fans expected.

A statistically poor year from star quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ disjointed offense made the perennial Super Bowl contenders from Kansas City look more like outsiders in 2023. However, it would be utterly foolish to underestimate this team.

The Chiefs have won two Super Bowl championships over the past four seasons. They also have one of the best head coach and quarterback combinations in NFL history. In other words, whenever Kansas City gets into the playoffs, it gets there with a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl. Not only that, but the Chiefs’ first playoff opponent, the Miami Dolphins, is a team that they already defeated earlier this season.

The Dolphins have been electric on offense, but it’s well known throughout the football world that Miami’s record against good teams such as Kansas City leaves much to be desired. Indeed, Miami was a very disappointing 1-5 in the regular season against teams with winning records. That includes the Dolphins’ 21-14 loss to the Chiefs on Nov. 5 in Germany.

Injuries have hit the Dolphins hard at the worst possible time, but there is still more than enough talent on Miami’s roster to make a playoff run. Can Miami score a massive win over Mahomes and a Chiefs team dealing with its own issues to start the postseason?

Dolphins at Chiefs Preview

Miami’s 29.2 points scored per game is the second-best mark in the NFL. However, the fact that the Dolphins managed only 14 points against Kansas City back in November is among the many examples of Miami falling short against good teams in 2023. That earlier game provided the Chiefs with a perfect blueprint for securing a second win over the Dolphins. The Week 9 result in Germany has also helped make the Chiefs favorites for this game even though Kansas City is dealing with several concerns of its own.

In the earlier matchup against the Dolphins, the Chiefs’ excellent secondary managed to hold Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill to just 62 yards, while the team’s other deep threat, Jaylen Waddle, was held to only 42. In a regular season that saw Hill catch passes for a total of 1,799 yards, the Chiefs held him to a low total, and repeating that success will   be a key factor in Kansas City’s playoff opener. In going up against Hill, the Chiefs are fortunate to have one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks in L’Jarius Sneed. He has been keeping No. 1 receivers quiet all year, so his battle with Hill will be fascinating to watch.

That battle will be even more important if Waddle, who also broke the 1,000-yard mark in receiving this year, is unable to play. He has been battling through an ankle injury that kept him out of his team’s Week 18 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The drop in quality from Waddle to Miami’s tertiary options is significant, so if Waddle can’t go, it would only put more pressure on Hill in his tough matchup against Sneed. However, Hill has the benefit of an outstanding chemistry with his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, who led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards during the regular season. Regardless of who lines up for Miami on offense, the Chiefs' defensive backs will have their hands full.

Injuries were plaguing all areas of Miami’s roster in the days leading up to this crucial playoff clash. Running back Raheem Mostert also missed the Buffalo game, and the Fins will be desperate to get him back for the playoffs. Mostert averaged 7.1 yards per carry against the Chiefs defense when these teams played earlier this year in Germany. Overall, Kansas City gave up 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season, so Mostert and fellow Dolphins running back De’Von Achane will be key players in this game.

Miami left tackle Terron Armstead wasn’t practicing earlier this week, and there are also doubts about the availability of safeties Jevon Hollard and DeShon Elliott. With cornerback Xavien Howard and linebackers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips already lost for this game (and the entire playoffs in the cases of Chubb and Phillips), Miami will need all the help it can get this weekend.

To bolster their depleted defensive ranks, the Dolphins have signed pass-rusher Justin Houston, who will face off against his former team in the playoffs’ Wild-Card Round on Sunday. He joins a defense that had the NFL’s third-most sacks and the most quarterback hits during the regular season, but those numbers were largely due to the play of Chubb and Phillips, who are out with season-ending injuries. Given that the Chiefs' offensive line conceded the league’s second-fewest sacks during the regular season, Miami’s defensive line appears to have its work cut out.

The Dolphins won’t be without hope, however. There is still a lot of power on the interior of their defensive line, and Jalen Ramsey has had an excellent season at cornerback. He had three interceptions in just 10 regular-season games and will be looking forward to covering a group of Chiefs receivers that has registered the most drops in the league.

Those dropped passes were part of the reason Mahomes had the worst statistical year of his career in 2023. Kansas City’s offense has averaged 21.8 points per game, which ranks the Chiefs only 15th in the NFL when it comes to scoring. That is not a ranking we are used to seeing from this excellent offense under head coach Andy Reid.

One of Kansas City’s biggest concerns heading into the playoffs is the recent performance of star tight end Travis Kelce. He didn’t top 50 receiving yards in any of his last three games, even though he is more important to this offense than ever because of the experience deficit among his team’s receivers. Kelce’s lack of production is concerning, and it is unusual to see him without a 100-yard game since Week 6, but everyone knows he could turn it on at any moment.

To help make up for Kelce’s quiet stretch, rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice stepped up to post a very impressive second half of the regular season. He scored a touchdown against the Dolphins the last time these teams met, and he figures to be a crucial part of the offense on Saturday night.

The Chiefs will also need a big game from running back Isiah Pacheco, who had 130 yards in the regular-season finale against the Cincinnati Bengals. His 935 yards this season came on a healthy average of 4.6 yards per carry, and he will need to be at his best going up against a Miami defense that allowed just 3.8 yards per carry during the regular season – tying the Dolphins for the NFL’s fourth-best performance in that area. Getting Pacheco going to take some pressure off Mahomes and his unpredictable receiving group will be important for Kansas City.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Predictions and Picks

This is a tricky one to figure out, because both teams were showing signs of weakness toward the end of the regular season. Miami is troubled by a long list of injuries and an inability to defeat superior teams, while the Chiefs' offensive struggles have resulted in some sloppy games, including a 20-14 loss to a weak Raiders team just three weeks ago.

With question marks hanging over both teams, I will lean toward Kansas City to win this one. The Chiefs have the advantage at coach and quarterback, as well as the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd. Miami’s struggles against the NFL’s top teams have been well-documented. Unfortunately for their fans, I will be taking the Dolphins to lose again here.

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-240)

The over/under total for this game has been set at 43.5 points – a reflection of the issues that both teams must overcome. It is a tricky line to figure out, but I will lean toward the over here. I am not overly excited about the offensive action that we are set to see at Arrowhead this weekend, but the line has come down far enough that I am comfortable taking the over.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has had his struggles, but he’s still an elite QB. He hasn't been helped by his offensive weapons this year, but a well-rested tight end Travis Kelce and the recent late-season surge from rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice should help Kansas City’s offense get back on track. I think we will see a new-look Chiefs unit this weekend, and Miami should be able to put up enough points to help us get past the 43.5-point line.

The Pick: Over 43.5 Points (-110)

Best Dolphins vs. Chiefs Player-Prop Bets Today 

Travis Kelce

I am going all in on the Travis Kelce love this weekend. He had a poor finish to the regular season, but the playoffs offer up a perfect opportunity for the Kansas City tight end to reset and get back to doing what he does best. After resting in Week 18, he returns to playoff action in front of a home crowd and will be ready to get back to his dominant ways.

That dip in production late in the year has helped give us a line of just 57.5 yards for Kelce, which would have been unheard of earlier in the season. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes know that he will be crucial in the playoffs this year, and I don’t think they will waste any time in getting him going this weekend.

The Pick: Travis Kelce over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Tua Tagovailoa

I think that the Dolphins should be able to move the ball this weekend, but I can’t take my eyes off the interceptions market for Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. His 14 interceptions are tied for fourth-most in the NFL, and I don’t like this matchup for him.

Kansas City’s defense has talented players all over it, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is very good at confusing opposition quarterbacks. His coverage disguises are dangerous for Tagovailoa, who likes to drop back and get the ball out quickly. He also might be without one of his top options at receiver this weekend, and the Chiefs defensive line registered the most quarterback hits in 2023. I see a slip-up on the horizon for Tagovailoa, so I will be backing him to complete a pass to the opposition.

The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)

Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Dolphins vs. Chiefs Wild-Card Round: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+360)

Spread Bet

Leg 1: Kansas City Chiefs (-225)

Total Points

Leg 2: Over 43.5 Points (-110)

Receiving Yards

Leg 3: Travis Kelce over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Odds are subject to change*

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