TNF picks: Jaguars vs Saints Predictions, Props and SGP (+475)
Alex Buck makes his TNF picks and predictions for Jaguars vs Saints in Week 7 of the NFL 2023 season.
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Best TNF Same-Game Parlay Picks for Jaguars vs Saints Week 7: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+475)
Leg-1 SGP Pick: Under 39.5 Points (-115)
Leg-2 SGP Pick: New Orleans Saints to win (-150)
Leg-3 SGP Pick: Travis Etienne Over 60 Rushing Yards (-180)
NFL SGP @(+475): (Bet $100 to Win $575). Get the best odds at Betway Sportsbook.
NFL Schedule Week 6 – Game info
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-3)
Date: Thursday, Oct. 19
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, in New Orleans, La.
TV Channel: NBC
Live Stream: FuboTV
The 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars head to Louisiana for this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup with a chance to give themselves a two-game lead in the AFC South Division.
The New Orleans Saints, the Jags’ opponent on Thursday, are fighting for prime position in the crowded NFC South, where New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta all enter Week 7 with three wins.
Both the Jaguars and Saints have faced challenges on offense this season. New Orleans struggled to find the end zone despite a high-volume yardage day from quarterback Derek Carr in Houston on Sunday, while the Jags’ play-calling has been underwhelming to say the least.
Let’s break this game down and make a couple of predictions for it. I will also recommend two player props that I really like for this Thursday night matchup.
Jaguars vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 7
Moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars +125, New Orleans Saints -150
Spread: Jaguars +3 (-115), Saints -3 (-105)
Total: Over/Under 39.5 points
Jaguars vs. Saints Preview
The Jacksonville Jaguars put a beating on the Indianapolis Colts this past weekend, but it wasn’t as comfortable a victory as the final score made it seem.
Indianapolis appears to have lost rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson for the season, since the Colts suspect that surgery is the best option for dealing with the injury to his throwing shoulder. That means Gardner Minshew is now the Colts’ starter, and he was already one of the league’s better backup quarterback options.
On Sunday, Minshew threw for 329 yards against Jacksonville's secondary, which has struggled this season. The Jaguars currently have the second-worst passing defense in football, allowing an average of 270 yards per game.
Jacksonville’s secondary could find itself in even more trouble on Thursday night because defensive back Tyson Campbell’s availability for this game is in doubt. The young corner has given the Jags their best chance at stopping opposition wide receivers, but he left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and is now doubtful to play on Thursday night.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence also took a knock late in the game, and was spotted on Tuesday with a knee brace, which could put his availability for Thursday night’s game in jeopardy. We’ll keep that in mind in making predictions, but Lawrence hasn’t been ruled out just yet.
Jacksonville benefited greatly from turnovers in its win over Indianapolis. Minshew might have thrown for more than 300 yards, but he also threw three ugly picks, and the Jags defense forced a fumble that set the offense up for a Travis Etienne score.
On the plus side, the Jags scored 37 points without needing to work as hard as they should have, and Etienne continues to be a real difference-maker on offense. The versatile running back has had two rushing touchdowns in each of his last two games, and seems to serve as a get-out-of-jail-free card whenever his team needs a moment of magic.
Jags fans are desperately calling for a change in the team’s play calling. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor appears to be in over his head, and one can’t help but wonder what the offense might look like with head coach Doug Pederson calling the plays.
In any case, there’s a lot of potential for Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Co. to excel, but they have been underwhelming so far and are too easy to take off the field. On Thursday, the Jaguars will be up against a New Orleans defense that is performing extremely well this year, and that could mean trouble.
The Saints defense allows only 16 points and 182 passing yards per game. Both stats rank in the NFL’s top six in their respective categories. New Orleans has allowed 20 points or fewer in all but one of game. The Saints also shut out the struggling New England Patriots in an embarrassing 34-0 rout just a couple of weeks ago.
While the Saints have really impressed on the defensive side this season, the quarterbacks they’ve faced were Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill, Carolina rookie Bryce Young, Green Bay’s Jordan Love, Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield, New England’s Mac Jones, and rookie C.J. Stroud of Houston. I will gladly argue that Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence is at least as good as all of those QBs and likely better, so he should present a genuine challenge if the Jags’ offense is able to organize itself on the road.
The Saints offense has received a definite spark from the return of running back Alvin Kamara, who missed the season’s first three games due to a suspension. Since rejoining the team, Kamara has racked up 23 catches in just three games, while also rushing for 199 yards and a touchdown.
Kamara keeps the New Orleans offense rolling, and certainly helps it extend drives and hold on to the football. QB Derek Carr had his biggest passing day as a Saint last weekend, throwing for 353 yards, one touchdown, and one pick, but there is definite concern about an offense that was able to eat up all that yardage yet have only 13 points to show for it.
The Saints need to be better within 30 yards of the opposing end zone, and their offense needs to do a better job making use of its elite weapons in scoring territory.
New Orleans wide receivers Michael Thomas and Chris Olave have just one touchdown between them, and Carr has only thrown five TD passes this season.
All these issues lead to a total scoring line set below 40 for this game on Thursday night, and there’s a good chance that the matchup will turn into a defensive showdown with two offensive units that have struggled to find any real rhythm.
Jaguars vs. Saints Predictions and NFL Picks Week 7
Interestingly, the New Orleans Saints are currently 0-6 when it comes to going over the points total for their games this season. The defense is hot, keeping opposition teams to low totals, and the offense is struggling enough to deliver weak scoring performances.
Jacksonville gives up a ton of air yards, but much of this game will come down to whether both teams can capitalize in the red zone. The Jags will be forced into throwing in those condensed situations because New Orleans is performing well against the run, while the Saints just need to figure out what their red-zone identity is going to be.
Although the line is set at 39.5, I’m inclined to take the under once again. It’s a very quick turnaround for these teams going into Thursday's game, and I’m not convinced either side works out all of its kinks in just three days.
I’ll take the under here in what might feel like a dull Thursday game, but will actually be a display of two very talented front-seven units on defense.
The Pick: Under 39.5 Points (-115)
It's hard to trust either one of these offenses right now, but I find myself putting a lot more faith in New Orleans than Jacksonville.
Given the fact that Jacksonville must play a road game in what is always a hostile environment at the Caesars Superdome, it's going to be very difficult for this to become the game that turns the Jaguars’ offense around this season.
I’ll take the Saints money-line at home in a game that could easily turn into a field-goal kicking contest.
The Pick: New Orleans Saints to win (-150)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Jaguars vs. Saints
It’s tough not to love Alvin Kamara’s line this week. Kamara has 199 receiving yards in three games and has also been targeted more than any other Saints player in those games.
Kamara is, quite simply, the engine of the Saints’ offense, and QB Derek Carr is quickly learning that when he needs a guy to be there for him, he needs to find Kamara.
Kamara’s line for this game is 29.5 receiving yards, and even though the Jags’ front-seven is the strongest part of Jacksonville’s team right now, I can see Kamara getting enough targets and enough space to cover this line comfortably. He has cleared that number easily in every game he’s played so far this year, and I’ll take it once again here.
I love Travis Etienne, and he’s one of the best options the Jags have right now. The Saints secondary is going to cause Jacksonville problems downfield, and even though the New Orleans front-seven is a great unit, I can see the Jags leaning into their run game on the road.
The Superdome is loud, and Jacksonville’s passing game hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing so far this season. All signs point toward a volume day for Etienne, who has had 18 or more rushing attempts in each of his last four games.
All the Jaguars need from Etienne is one broken tackle, and he can get them 40-plus yards on a single run. There’s a little risk to it, but I like betting the over here in anticipation of plenty of work for the Jags back.
Odds are subject to change*
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