TNF odds, picks: Lions vs Packers Predictions, Props and SPG (+255)
Alex Buck makes his TNF picks and predictions for Lions vs. Packers in Week 4 of the NFL 2023 season.
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NFL Schedule Week 4 – Game info
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Detroit Lions (2-1) vs Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Date: Thursday, Sept. 28
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis.
Live Stream: Amazon Prime / NFL+
The Detroit Lions travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers this week in Thursday Night Football’s NFC North divisional clash. Both teams are 2-1, and a win Thursday would give one of them sole possession of first place in the division.
Quarterback Jordan Love led the Packers to an unbelievable comeback win against the Saints on Sunday after his team trailed 17-0 going into the fourth quarter. An incredible final 15 minutes saw Green Bay come out on top with an 18-17 win. Touchdowns from Love and Romeo Doubs gave the Packers their slim lead, but the deciding factor was the Saints’ missed field-goal attempt from 46 yards with just over a minute to go. Green Bay fans rejoiced after Love showed his remarkable poise in their home opener.
The Lions also enjoyed a home win on Sunday, sweeping away the Atlanta Falcons 20-6. They managed to prevail against head coach Arthur Smith’s “always run the ball no matter what” mentality, while also stopping rookie Bijan Robinson. Tight end Sam LaPorta broke out for a huge 45-yard touchdown reception, and Lions fans were treated to something rare when Detroit quarterback Jared Goff scored a rushing TD.
Lions vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 2
Lions at Packers Preview
With the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears both starting the season at 0-3, this game between the division’s only winning teams could turn out to be crucial by the time the season ends.
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love might just be “that guy.” It’s still early, but you have to credit the Packers, who found their replacement for Aaron Rodgers and brought him into the franchise well before they needed him. Coming into Week 4, Love has silenced the many skeptics who doubted his ability to lead this Packers team. The fourth-quarter comeback showed Packers fans that he is the real deal.
As impressive as Love has been, he might get even better over the coming weeks. Running back Aaron Jones is trending toward playing on Thursday night, and wide receiver Christian Watson will eventually be healthy. Those are arguably the team’s two best offensive players on the verge of returning to action.
Love’s 39 rushing yards and touchdown on nine carries proved that he has the potential to be a dual-threat quarterback. His 259 passing yards and TD toss finished off his very strong performance against a tough Saints defense.
We do have to pump the brakes on the Love hype a little bit, however, because New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr was injured midway through the game – forcing the Saints to rely on Jameis Winston as their QB down the stretch. Winston finished the game with a stat line not too dissimilar to Carr’s, but one has to imagine that Carr would have managed the game better and enabled the Saints to maintain their lead.
There are a lot of pieces to this Packers offense, and Love is managing to distribute the ball to all of them. The receiving corps of Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, and Dontayvion Wicks will all be looking to build on a solid Week 3.
The fact that the Packers were trailing helped, but Doubs still demanded all 12 of his targets last week. He caught five passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, as he is becoming one of Love’s favorite targets. It will be interesting to see how the Packers line up when Watson is healthy enough to return, because Reed and Wicks have both proven that they are more than capable of being starting receivers on this team. It will most likely be Wicks who loses his spot to Watson, but Green Bay’s overall depth at receiver will please Packers fans who might have thought their team didn’t have any good receivers heading into the season.
Detroit, meanwhile, did manage to stop the Falcons run game, and the Lions pride themselves on their rushing defense, which forced Desmond Ridder to throw the ball. The Lions gave the rest of the league a tutorial on how to stop the Falcons, holding Atlanta to just 44 rushing yards.
This week, Detroit might be up against Green Bay running back Aaron Jones if he is healthy enough to play. If Jones isn’t healthy, it will be AJ Dillon and a combination of other rotation backs. Either way, expect another good performance from the Lions’ run defense. If Jones plays, the Packers might be cautious in using him – since he is coming off an injury -- and Dillon has not shown himself to be an effective back.
Detroit wide receiver Josh Reynolds had a big doughnut (no receptions) against the Falcons. He’ll be looking to bounce back against a Green Bay team that allowed 150 yards to Chris Olave and Michael Thomas while the Saints were using Jameis Winston at QB. Reynolds will have a key role in opening up the Packers defense. With fellow Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown getting most of the defense’s attention, Reynolds can sneak under the radar.
When Reynolds failed to produce on Sunday, tight end Sam LaPorta stepped up and broke out in a big way. LaPorta had 11 targets for eight receptions, 84 yards, and a TD. He is looking like the real deal, and it’s exciting to see how he’ll do in a favorable matchup vs. the Packers.
Fantasy managers can breathe a small sigh of relief now that Jahmyr Gibbs has emerged as Detroit’s lead running back in the wake of David Montgomery’s injury. Gibbs rushed for 80 yards on 17 carries against Atlanta last weekend. His rushing production was good, but he barely showed up in the receiving game. The Lions will look to get him more involved this week, because he has game-breaking potential if they use him correctly.
The showdown of rookie tight ends (Detroit’s LaPorta and Green Bay’s Musgrave) is going to be an interesting part of this game. Both were second-round selections in the 2023 NFL Draft, taken only eight picks apart. In a short sample size, they have both shown that they can be a solid options at the TE position, and they’re only going to improve as the years go on. The tight end is often the most reliable target for a quarterback. These two are averaging more than 10 yards-per-catch, so you can’t ask for much more from them.
Lions vs. Packers Predictions & NFL Picks Week 4
The Lions are going to stop the Packers run game. Luckily for the Packers, they don’t have much of a run game. They’ll be able to let Jordan Love throw the ball, which is what he does best.
Detroit QB Jared Goff doesn’t need an explanation. He has thrown for 819 yards on the season with a 69.9 percent completion rate. We know what Goff can do. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Reynolds all healthy, he should be able to carve up this Packers team.
This has all the makings of a good, old-fashioned shootout, and I’m confident in taking the over here.
The Pick: Over 46.5 Points (-110)
This is a tough matchup to call, particularly since it could be vital in terms of the final NFC North standings with both teams more than capable of winning this division. Running back Aaron Jones is trending toward playing, but receiver Christian Watson (hamstring) is still questionable and was cleared for only a limited practice on Tuesday. The Packers have proven that they can win without Watson, though. In their season-opener with a healthy Jones, they were able to use the running back effectively and put up a lot of points.
The Lions can put up points against anyone -- that’s how good their offense is -- but defensively, their secondary is banged up, as they are without Emmanuel Moseley and C.J.Gardner-Johnson. Rookie Brian Branch has been impressive, but Detroit might not have enough depth to stop the Packers.
It’s not much of an upset, but I’m going to take Green Bay to win this one. I think the Packers defense might be slightly better overall than Detroit’s and could make some big plays on TNF.
The Pick: Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-120)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Lions vs. Packers
Detroit rookie tight end Sam LaPorta broke out against the Falcons last weekend. There’s every chance he will have another huge game against the Packers.
Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown seems a little banged up with his turf toe injury, and Josh Reynolds had a groin injury prior to the Week 3 matchup, which might be why he was so ineffective in that game.
In Week 1, facing a Chicago Bears team that had the duo of quarterback Justin Fields and tight end Cole Kmet, the Packers conceded five receptions and 44 receiving yards to the TE position. As bad as Fields has been, he is the best QB the Packers have faced for a full game so far this season.
Jared Goff and LaPorta should be able to exploit Green Bay down the middle.
Green Bay WR Jayden Reed is a rookie out of Michigan State, picked in in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. While Christian Watson has been out with an injury, Reed has emerged as the Packers’ most consistent receiver. He’s averaging 50 yards per game, and with the Lions’ backfield not at 100 percent, he might be able to take advantage and hit Detroit for some big plays downfield.
As mentioned earlier, Watson is more than likely not going to play in this game. He only had a limited practice on Tuesday, although he did tell reporters afterward that he was planning to play. Reed and Romeo Doubs should once again be the starting receivers, and I am confident that Reed can clear his line.
Best Same Game Parlay Picks for Lions vs. Packers Week 4: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+255)
Leg 2: Over 46.5 Points (-110)
Odds are subject to change*
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