TNF picks: Broncos vs Chiefs Predictions, Props and SGP (+215)
Alex Buck makes his TNF picks and predictions for Broncos vs Chiefs in Week 6 of the NFL 2023 season.
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NFL Schedule Week 6 – Game info
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Denver Broncos (1-4) vs Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Date: Thursday, Oct. 12
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
TV Channel: Prime Video
Live Stream: Prime Video
The 1-4 Denver Broncos hit the road once again for an AFC West matchup against the 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs, a clash between the division’s top and bottom teams. This week’s Thursday Night Football game promises to be entertaining, as the Chiefs electrifying offense meets PFFs worst-ranked defense.
Let’s dive into the odds for this game and predict how these teams will fare in Week 6.
Broncos vs. Chiefs, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 6
Broncos at Chiefs Preview
Last weekend, the Broncos fell to the New York Jets 31-21 despite facing what is arguably one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Now set to play the Chiefs this Thursday and again in two weeks, plus a matchup against the Bills in Week 10, the road ahead doesn't look any easier for Denver. The Broncos are clearly struggling, so it will be interesting to see if they move any of their key assets before the trade deadline in preparation for next season.
With his team travelling to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the current Super Bowl champions, Broncos head coach Sean Payton might have to take some risks here, because Denver is a heavy underdog.
That could mean Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin will get a chance to shine. McLaughlin has been the beneficiary of starting running back Javonte Williams’ quad injury. Although Williams is back in training and likely to play, he has not been as explosive as he was in the past. Indeed, he has only managed to rush for more than 50 yards once this season -- gaining 52 yards on 13 carries against the Raiders in Week 1.
When McLaughlin took over the primary running back duties in Week 4 against the Bears after Williams got hurt, he rushed for 72 yards on just seven carries -- immediately eclipsing Williams’ season-high for yardage. McLaughlin’s strong performance continued in Week 5 against the Jets, when he gained 68 yards on nine carries. Notably, he also made an impact in the passing game -- with a touchdown catch in each of the past two weeks. Given his recent impressive performance, the Broncos have to play his hot hand out the backfield. He has been the most exciting player on the current team, and with the Chiefs ranked 24th against the rush, McLaughlin could be the key to carving up Kansas City’s defense.
Denver quarterback Russell Wilson has put up some decent stats through his first five weeks. He has thrown for 1,210 yards,11 touchdowns, and two interceptions -- averaging 242 passing yards per game. However, it must be noted that much of his production has been in “garbage time” when the Broncos have been trailing by big margins, forcing Wilson to throw the ball more.
While the team’s offense hasn’t been clicking, the real red flag for the Broncos is their defense. They rank dead last in tackling with a PFF grade of 29.0 and last in pass coverage with a grade of 41.6. Denver has given up an average of 285.8 yards per game through the air and will now face the best quarterback in the league in Patrick Mahomes. This matchup is a recipe for disaster, since Mahomes possesses the ability to score on every single drive against this defense – similar to what Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins managed in their 70-20 win over the Broncos earlier this season.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, enter this game riding a four-game winning streak. They have recovered well from their Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions, although their recent wins have come in games that were closer than they'd like. They narrowly beat a struggling Vikings team last week and just scraped past the Jets and Zach Wilson by three points in Week 4. The only team Kansas City managed to beat convincingly was the Chicago Bears. This Week 6 matchup against the struggling Broncos offers the Chiefs an ideal opportunity to flex their muscles and show the league why they are the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Coming off a shorter week of practices, the Chiefs have some concern about starting tight end Travis Kelce, who went down under no contact during the last game at Minnesota. It is believed he’s suffering from an ankle injury. He did return to the Vikings game in the second half, but has been limited in practice this week. Chiefs fans are undoubtedly hoping that he plays on Thursday night.
If Kelce suits up, he could be in for a monster day. Tight ends feast against Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s defense. Against teams that actively use their tight ends, the Broncos have conceded an average of 80 yards to players at that position. Most recently, Denver gave up 67 yards to the Jets’ Tyler Conklin and 85 yards and two touchdowns to Chicago’s Cole Kmet. Kelce is the clear No.1 tight end in the league, and the Chiefs will certainly want him in this game.
It's hard to imagine anything other than a Kansas City win on TNF. The Broncos have been awful, and the Chiefs have all the right tools to exploit them. Let’s dive into our predictions and picks for the game.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions and NFL Picks Week 6
The Broncos have shown that they can put points on the scoreboard. Since Week 2, Denver has scored at least 20 points a game. The Chiefs have also scored at least 20 points in four out of their last five games. This game will come down to whether or not the Broncos finally work things out on defense. It's highly unlikely that they will do that against the best quarterback in the league, and their defensive coverage is currently ranked the worst in the NFL.
The Chiefs put up 41 points against the Bears defense a couple of weeks ago, so they’re more than capable of scoring that many points. There’s also the fact that Travis Kelce, the best tight end in the league, faces the defense most vulnerable to NFL tight ends.
Since the Dolphins put up 70 points against the Broncos, we could see a competitive reaction from the Chiefs in an effort to match Miami’s mark. In a divisional matchup, I’m backing the Chiefs to turn up and destroy the Broncos.
The Pick: Over 47.5 Points (-110)
The Chiefs haven’t been great at covering the spread this season. They have only managed to do it once with their blowout victory against the Bears. All their other games have been settled by margins within seven points.
However, this game is different. The Chiefs should be able to score points on every drive against this Denver defense. The Broncos won’t have enough answers on offense to keep up with Kansas City, which should be able to easily cover this spread, despite its being on the high side.
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Broncos vs. Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco was suffering from an injury during the Chiefs’ preseason and training camp. It is only in the past few weeks that we have been able to see him return to full strength.
It’s hard not to like Pacheco. He has a chip on his shoulder, he’s a tough, hard runner, and wants to prove everyone wrong. He’s the Amon-Ra St. Brown of the running back position.
Pacheco, coming off three straight games with a rushing touchdown, will now face the sixth-worst rush defense in the league. In addition, he has been getting more touches as he has become healthier. The Broncos, on the other hand, have struggled -- allowing an average of 251 rushing yards over their last three games. Since the Chiefs are starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes against the league's worst defense in pass coverage, Kansas City is likely to jump out to a big lead. If this happens, expect Pacheco to help run out the clock.
Chiefs wide receiver Justin Watson has been flying under the radar so far this season and putting up some decent stats in the process. He has not had more than three receptions in a single game, but he’s Patrick Mahomes’ deep-threat option in this Kansas City offense.
Watson has cleared his receiving-yardage line in four out of five games so far this season. The only game where he didn’t do it came against a very good New York Jets defense, currently ranked fifth in terms of pass coverage. Now, he's up against the Broncos, who have the league's weakest coverage defense, making it highly likely that he’ll surpass this line effortlessly. In fact, he has even managed to record at least 50 yards in three out of his last five games, so it might be worth laddering his receiving yardage total for maximum gain.
Best Same-Game Parlay Picks for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 6: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+215)
Leg-1 SGP: Over 47.5 Points (-110)
Leg-2 SGP: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)
Odds are subject to change*
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