TNF picks: Buccaneers vs Bills Predictions, Props and SGP (+475)
Alex Buck makes his TNF picks and predictions for Buccaneers at Bills in Week 8 of the NFL 2023 season.
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Best Same Game Parlay Picks for Buccaneers vs. Bills Week 7: 3-Leg Parlay Pick (+475)
Leg-2: Over 42.5 Points (-115)
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NFL Schedule Week 6 – Game info
2023 NFL Regular Season Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-3)
Date: Thursday, Oct. 26
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, N.Y.
TV Channel: FOX
Live Stream: FuboTV
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit the road this week to take on the Buffalo Bills in a Thursday Night Football matchup at Orchard Park, N.Y. Tampa will be looking to stop a slide that has included back-to-back losses to Atlanta and Detroit. Buffalo is also eager to get back in the win column after slipping to 4-3 with last weekend’s road loss to an otherwise mediocre-looking New England Patriots team.
There have been upsets across the board in the NFL this season, and no team has looked untouchable, but Buffalo has now lost three games, tying their total from the entire 2022 season. The Bills will have to run the table if they want to go 13-3 again this year, and they are at risk of falling out of favor in the division since two of their losses have come against AFC East opponents.
The Bucs need a win to avoid falling behind the Falcons and Saints in the NFC South --a conference that is currently wide open. A win over Buffalo would certainly make a statement, especially on the road, so let's predict how these two teams will fare against one another ahead of Thursday night's game.
Buccaneers vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Odds Week 8
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +310, Buffalo Bills -400
Spread: Buccaneers +8.5 (-110), Bills -8.5 (-110)
Total: Over/Under 42.5 points
Buccaneers vs. Bills Preview
This is a tough matchup for both teams, and it’s nowhere near as one-sided as we might have thought it would be before this season began. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played better than expected with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, while the Buffalo Bills have now underperformed twice against teams they were supposed to beat.
For Tampa, stopping the current skid is crucial. The Bucs struggled to convert yards into points against Atlanta, finishing with just 13 points on the day. Despite a relatively strong performance from their defense, those 13 points still weren’t enough to win. This happened just one week after Tampa Bay put up only six points against Detroit, so the Buccaneers must now need to figure out how to score more in an abbreviated week of practice before they face the Bills on Thursday.
The Bucs do catch a break this week, because the Bills defense is missing key components in the middle of the field. Last year, the combination of Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano was one of the best middle-linebacker duos in the league, but this year they’re missing both players.
Edmunds signed a hefty deal with the Chicago Bears in free agency. Milano is still with the team and started out the year exactly as Buffalo had hoped he would, but an injury in London cut his season short.
This is a big opportunity for Tampa Bay, which has failed to establish the run in back-to-back games. Rachaad White is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season and was held to 35 or fewer in each of the past two weeks. Fellow Bucs running back Chase Edmonds is set to return this week after being on Injured Reserve, and he could add some much-needed support out of the backfield.
While Tampa Bay is a pass-first team, there’s a fine line between being pass-first and being one-dimensional. When he faces too much pressure, Mayfield tends to make mistakes, and he has now thrown an interception in each of the last four games.
Defensively, Tampa Bay is one of the league's best against the run with a stout defensive front, but the Bucs allow one of the NFL’s highest yardage totals against the pass. That statistic doesn’t bode well against a high-volume Buffalo Bills offense that also happens to be very pass-oriented.
The Bills have been a little hit-and-miss this season, and their performance over the past three games has fallen short of the mark. After handing the Dolphins their first loss of the season in a very well-rounded Week 4 effort that saw Bills QB Josh Allen throw for four touchdowns, Buffalo has crumbled in three straight games.
Since their win over Miami, the Bills have lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots. While they did manage to beat the New York Giants 14-9, the final score doesn’t tell the full story of a game that saw Allen and the Buffalo offense struggle for three and a half quarters.
When the Bills are hot, they’re unstoppable, and after that big win over Miami, many people considered Buffalo to be the best team in the league. However, things then went south, and crucial injuries on defense are definitely hurting this team as it battles for contention in the AFC East.
Milano is the heartbeat of Buffalo’s defense. His ability and leadership were the only reasons the team felt it could allow Edmunds to walk away, but Milano has likely been lost for the season with a broken leg and knee injury, and he’s not the only sidelined member of the Bills. Tre’Davious White suffered a non-contact torn ACL earlier in the year, which has left Buffalo without its No. 1 cornerback and best run defender.
Younger guys are going to have to settle into key roles if Buffalo wants to be in contention this year, which means big performances are required from players such as 2022 sixth-round draft pick Christian Benford at corner and 2022 third-rounder Terrell Bernard at linebacker.
This is a tough test for a beaten-up Bills secondary, which will have to deal with Tampa Bay receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. If Mayfield can find his rhythm with those guys, this could be a very close game on Thursday Night.
Buccaneers vs. Bills Predictions and NFL Picks Week 8
While the Bucs are 3-3 this season, they’re 2-0 on the road, including a win over the New Orleans Saints in a hostile environment at the Superdome. This team can really hurt opponents down the field, and Mike Evans is once again proving that he’s one of the NFL’s toughest wide receivers to handle in single coverage.
Buffalo’s secondary is struggling. After starting the season relatively well, the Bills are now allowing some of the NFL’s biggest numbers through the air. Since Buffalo lost Tre’Davious White, the number of passing yards it allows opponents has flown upward. Just last weekend, the Bills gave up 272 yards and two touchdowns to QB Mac Jones and the Patriots, who have otherwise blatantly struggled to move the football this season.
I’m expecting Buffalo to win, but the 8.5-point line is too wide for me. I think we will see Tamp Bay QB Baker Mayfield throw a lot of passes, and a couple of touchdowns by the Bucs’ playmakers will keep this game close. Indeed, Buffalo losing altogether is very much in play.
The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 (-110)
For reasons similar to the way I feel about the spread, I love the over in this one. In my mind it shapes up as a game of two offenses facing secondaries that will struggle to keep up.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has a major opportunity here to have a big day, but Buffalo absolutely must involve its second-level playmakers on offense if it wants to consistently move the football. Veteran wide receiver Gabe Davis disappeared again last Sunday against New England, but rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid announced himself to the league with new career-highs of eight catches and 75 receiving yards.
The Bucs have the talent to score points against this Bills defense. Despite poor scoring performances in its last two outings, Tampa Bay should score enough here for the game to reach the over.
The Pick: Over 42.5 Points (-115)
Best NFL Player-Prop Bets: Buccaneers vs. Bills
This is my favorite line of the week so far now that Buffalo rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid is taking a full set of reps as a result of Dawson Knox’s injury.
Kincaid’s eight catches and 75 yards against the Patriots made him QB Josh Allen’s clear No. 2 receiving option behind Stefon Diggs, and Kincaid was producing at a high level for his offense when targeted.
Kincaid's 2.59 yards-per-route-run blew his previous numbers out of the water, and anywhere near that level of action against Tampa Bay should help to cover the over for the Bills rookie on Thursday night.
The Tampa Bay defense allows only 17 points per game despite giving up big yardage through the air. The Bucs get stubborn in the red zone, but both Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins and Detroit’s Jared Goff were able to throw for two touchdowns against them this season.
I would imagine that the Bills will opt to have Josh Allen throw the football rather than trying to get running back James Cook through Vita Vea and Co. when it comes to those red-zone scenarios, and we know Allen is always capable of throwing a bomb for a 40-plus-yard TD at any time.
I’ll take Allen to throw at least two TDs on the night and therefore clear the over for his respective line.
The Pick: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)
Odds are subject to change*
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