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Ole Miss vs Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline - Peach Bowl Odds

Moneyline: Ole Miss Rebels +145, Penn State Nittany Lions -190
Spread: Ole Miss +3.5 (-115), Penn State -3.5 (-105)
Total: Over/Under 48.5 points

College Football Schedule Peach Bowl – Game info - Ole Miss at Penn State College Football Season 2023
Ole Miss (10-2) vs Penn State (10-2)
Date: Saturday, December 30, 2023
Time: 12:00 pm Eastern Time
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Georgia
TV Channel: ESPN
Live Stream: FuboTV
Live Radio: ESPN Radio

This has all the makings of a superb New Year's Six Bowl between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Both teams boast impressive 10-2 records for the season, featuring strong rosters and head coaches eager to secure a victory as the 2023 season comes to a close.

Let’s break down the matchup, go through both teams opt outs and make a couple of picks and predictions ahead of Saturday's game in Atlanta.

Ole Miss vs Penn State Preview

Let’s start with the opt outs to make sure we get a clear picture of how both sides might line up. So far, Ole Miss has the clear advantage here. Coach Lane Kiffin typically doesn't have players opting out of bowl games; there have been zero instances in the past two seasons, and so far, there are no reported opt-outs for this year's Peach Bowl.

Wide receiver Tre Harris is the most important name on the roster when it comes to potential opt outs, but it seems as though he will play. Lane Kiffin announced in early December that he expects his squad to be at full strength, and currently that holds true. Harris is expected to be a second to third round selection, but a big performance in the Peach Bowl could even boost his stock.

On the Penn State side, two major performers have already opted out and there is still the potential for one or two more. Defensive end Chop Robinson is out, and so is tight end Theo Johnson.

Robinson is expected to be a first round selection having put together back-to-back great seasons with the Nittany Lions. Johnson caught six touchdowns this season and had a big influence on the offense particularly in the second half of the 2023 campaign.

Ole Miss has an advantage when it comes to players opting out, and the potential loss of one of Penn State's key defensive players could be problematic. Facing Ole Miss will present a unique challenge for Penn State's defense, as they will encounter an offense they haven't faced much this season. They play relentlessly up-tempo football with a lot of motion and providing the defense with various looks.

The Rebels are averaging 31.4 points per game, and Jaxson Dart had multiple elite performances against tough SEC opponents, putting up 389 passing yards and four touchdowns against LSU, and 387 yards with two touchdowns against Texas A&M later in the year.

Ole Miss fans believe that Dart has a shot at the Heisman in 2024, and the motivation for that could begin with a great game here against Penn State. It seems as though he’ll have Tre Harris on the field, who has been his number one receiver this season with 851 yards and eight touchdowns, but it’ll be best-on-best with the Rebels offense facing a strong Penn State defense.

The Nittany Lions have allowed 11.8 points per game this season, ranking third in the nation. They did not allow teams to run the ball, giving up just 69 rushing yards per game on the season, and they apply enough pressure to make life difficult for opposing offenses.

Penn State managed three shutouts on the year, including their most recent game with a 42-0 win over Michigan State. Even in their two losses against Michigan and Ohio State, they allowed 24 points or less against both teams, and forced close games as a result.

This defense makes life uncomfortable for opposing teams. The question is whether they’re able to line up against and shut down Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss offense.

As for Penn State on the offensive side, the run game and the tight ends have produced the points. Penn State scored 26 touchdowns on the ground this season despite not having a standout 1,000-yard rusher. They prefer a blend of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who combined for 1,550 yards and 14 touchdowns this year.

As already mentioned, they’ll be without Theo Johnson and his six receiving touchdowns, but Tyler Warren will play. The two tight ends caught 13 of Drew Allar’s 23 touchdown throws this year, proving effective in short yardage and red zone situations. Warren has yet to declare for the 2024 NFL draft and could come back, but the Peach Bowl will come before that decision.

Penn State might not be the most explosive offense, but they have averaged over 34 points per game this year. They’ll face an Ole Miss defense that still leaks some points but is far better this season than it has been in years past.

Ole Miss vs Penn State Predictions and Pick

This is a dangerous matchup for the Nittany Lions, and they’ll need their defense to be at their very best if they want to win. Ole Miss doesn’t play like Michigan or Ohio State, or Penn State. They want explosive plays, chunk yardage, and to score as often as possible.

The best teams Penn State have faced so far this year run the ball heavily, with the likes of Michigan and Ohio State instead opting to take time off the clock and hold the ball.

Penn State can score, but can they score quickly, and keep up with the tempo of the Rebels? That’s where I’m not sure, and if Lane Kiffin is calling his best stuff and can put points on the board here, I don’t believe the Nittany Lions can keep pace.

I’m going to go with the Rebels here. I believe they might catch Penn State’s secondary off guard on multiple occasions, and we could see a couple of big touchdowns give them an early lead. Penn State won’t want to play from behind against this SEC opponent, and that might be their downfall.

The Pick: Ole Miss Moneyline (+145)

As I mentioned, both teams can score, and both teams likely will score. The pivotal question for Ole Miss is whether they can score 24 or more points, which is crucial for both securing the victory and hitting the over, but I hold the belief they can achieve that.

The Rebels scored 38 against Texas A&M and 55 against LSU, however only managed 17 against Georgia and 10 against Alabama. They won’t want to play Penn State’s game here in a low scoring matchup, because they’ll lose.

If I’m backing the Rebels to win the game, I’ll be backing the over too, because that’s the only way I see them getting it done.

The Pick: Over 48.5 Points (-110)

Best College Football Same Game Parlay Picks today for Ole Miss vs Penn State: 2-Leg Parlay Pick (+330)

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Ole Miss Moneyline (+145)

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Over 48.5 Points (-110)

Odds are subject to change*

CFB SGP @(+330): Bet $100 to Win $430

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