We’re just one round away from finalizing the 2024 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament's Elite Eight lineup, as the Sweet 16 is well under way. By Monday night, dreams will have become reality for four teams who will each be within two wins of the national championship. This weekend's outstanding lineup of Sweet 16 games includes a marquee matchup between Baylor and USC on Saturday night. Who will come out on top? Let’s dive in and take a closer look at this game.

Baylor vs. USC Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under – Women's March Madness Betting Lines March 30

Moneyline: Baylor Bears +135, USC Trojans -165 
Spread: Baylor +3.5 (-110), USC -3.5 (-110) 
Total: Over/Under 133.5 points 

Baylor vs. USC Injury Report

There are no injuries for either Baylor or USC.

Baylor vs. USC Prediction and Picks 

USC has achieved something truly incredible this season. Back in the preseason, the Trojans were a team projected to finish fifth in the Pac-12 and perhaps win a game in the conference tournament. How quickly things have changed! USC is now one of the best teams in the country with freshman JuJu Watkins showing that she’s a generational talent, and the Trojans have rolled through their NCAA Tournament competition so far. On the other hand, USC’s Saturday opponent, Baylor, is very fortunate to be in the Sweet 16 after shooting 5-for-18 from 3-point range in the Round of 32.

USC has only become better since the Trojans beat Stanford in the final of this year’s Pac-12 Tournament. This team is lethal on offense and has been stout defensively in holding its NCAA Tournament opponents to 55 points per game so far, The Bears certainly have their work cut out for them, because they will struggle to score consistently in this game.

Perhaps, as a fan, you are thinking that if an opposing team can just stop Watkins, then USC will be out of luck. That thought would be wrong. Stanford, expected to be this year’s Pac-12 champion even before the start of the season, shut Watkins down in the conference’s title game by holding her to nine points, but the Cardinal still lost to the Trojans by 13 points.

USC is very talented. McKenzie Forbes is one of the most underrated guards in the country and has been on fire of late. She enters Saturday’s matchup having scored at least 20 points in each of her last three games. Meanwhile, Trojans teammate Rayah Marshall went up against Stanford’s elite bigs Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen, but even they couldn’t stop her, as Marshall finished the Pac-12 title game with 10 points and 18 rebounds.

Baylor spent its regular season in a tough Big 12 Conference, but the Bears don’t match up well against USC. Although comparing and contrasting teams based on common opponents is one of my pet peeves, USC and Baylor both played Kansas this season, and the results were quite different. Baylor fell to the Jayhawks 87-66 on Jan. 10, but USC just beat that same Kansas team 73-55 in the NCAA’s Round of 32. I really do hate comparing past games against common opponents, because they don’t hold much meaning, but this is just one example of how this USC team is head-and-shoulders better than Baylor.

The Pick: USC -3.5 (-110) and USC Money Line 3-way (Excluding OT) (-150)

This over/under total for this game is a head-scratcher. I can see this turning into a USC blowout, and blowout totals are hard to predict. I suspect USC’s scoring will reach into the 80-point range, which means Baylor would just need to surpass about 50 points to make this total go over. USC’s defense, as mentioned already, has been stout, and given Baylor’s inconsistency from 3-point range, projecting this total is like guessing how many licks it takes to get to the center of Tootsie Pop.

Although I debated flipping a coin here (just kidding!), I do lean toward the over for this game. I see USC’s offense flowing for all four quarters and Baylor struggling to slow the Trojans down defensively. Since this is a Sweet 16 game, I’d like to think that Baylor will give us its best shooting performance, but that’s not going to be so easy against this USC defense. To break 50 points in this game, Baylor will need to average 12 or 13 points per quarter. As good as USC’s defense is, I can see the Bears managing to do that. Even if Baylor has one bad quarter, we’re not talking about a crazy amount of points that the Bears couldn’t make up over the rest of the game.

The Pick: Over 133.5 (-110)

Odds are subject to change*

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