The 2020-21 NBA Finals kicks off on Tuesday night, as the Milwaukee Bucks travel to face off against the Phoenix Suns. 

In a NBA Playoffs mired by injuries to many of the league’s best, the Bucks and Suns have survived the battle of attrition to reach basketball’s ultimate stage for one of the rare times in each of their franchises' histories. 

Almost 30 years ago was the last appearance for Phoenix in the NBA’s championship round, as the Charles Barkley-led Suns fell to Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls in six games of the 1993 Finals, highlighted by the series clinching three by John Paxson to give Chitown their first 90's three-peat. 

While the Suns have endured a near three decade Finals drought, the Bucks have had a even longer period of not being at least a conference champion. One has to go as far back to the days when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar went by the name of Lew Alcindor for Milwaukee’s last trip to the Finals, 1974, led by the Hall of Fame legendary center. However, they do have something the Suns franchise is desperate for: an actual NBA title they won in 1971. 

Luck Is Just As Key To A Championship as Skill and Will 

Neither team were top choices of many before the Playoffs to be the last two squads remaining. The No.3 seed Bucks were behind the Brooklyn Nets (sponsored by Betway) and the Philadelphia Sixers as the favorites to win the East, while the No.2 Suns had to draw motivation from most feeling the Los Angeles teams (the defending champion Lakers and the Betway sponsored Clippers) and even the top seeded Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets were the teams most likely to survive the brutal Western Conference. 

But a key reason why Milwaukee and Phoenix will play for the Larry O’Brien Trophy is how they both have benefitted greatly from their opponents’ bad luck. The Bucks caught a major break in the second round with the Nets plagued by injuries to two of their Big 3 superstars, Kyrie Irving and James Harden. They also partly benefitted from rising Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young rolling his ankle on an official in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, as the Bucks closed out Nate McMillian's upstarts on Saturday night in Game 6. 

Those fortuitous moments pale in comparison to the Suns’ fortunes, as all three of their West opponents were hampered by injuries to All-Star players either during their series against them (the Lakers’ Anthony Davis and the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard) or well before the playoffs (the Nuggets’ Jamal Murray). 

The Suns will likely again face off against a team not at full strength with two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo recovering from his knee injury suffered against the Hawks. 

If and Will Giannis Will Play

In a weird way, the injury to their superstar may prove beneficial to Mike Budenholzer’s team winning the Finals. The Bucks head coach, considered by some to still be coaching for his job after another Playoffs run of inexplicable poor play from his team, witnessed more aggressive play from point guard Jrue Holiday and center Brook Lopez to close out the Hawks. Power forward Bobby Portis' toughness and versatile scoring also lessen the absence of the Greek Freak for the Bucks to finally overcome a plucky Atlanta team. 

But against a mentally sound, energized and well balanced Suns team, the Bucks cannot win this series if Antetokounmpo is out for at least half of it. Encouraging progress has been made on his hyperextended left knee and he is listed as “doubtful” for Game 1. The best move for Antetokounmpo and the Bucks organization, in my opinion, is to have him return when the series shifts to Milwaukee in Game 3. More time to rest and having him return to a hostile home area is the type of energized moment that could turnaround a whole series around. 

How effective will Milwaukee be without Giannis

Understanding the likelihood of starting the series without Antetokounmpo, it is incumbent on the Bucks to play with a downhill mentally out in the desert for Games 1 and 2. 

Holliday and Lopez need to leave a majority of the jumpshots to Khris Middleton and play in the paint when Milwaukee's starters are on the court. Holliday also must use his physical body and dictate the tempo of the series to future Hall of Famer Chris Paul. Lopez reminded himself of the fact that he is a seven-footer in Games 5 and 6 vs Atlanta and will need to bring that same approach to neutralize the growing force that is Suns center Deandre Ayton. 

It’s already a challenge for Milwaukee with Giannis on the court, due to their propensity to settle for ridiculous shots and become fragile in long stretches under Budenholzer in the playoffs, to maintain an edge of playing their best basketball. And it will be an impossible task to defeat a well oiled machine like Phoenix - without their franchise cornerstone player - if the Bucks produce new AWOL moments. 

Chris Paul, Finals MVP to complete his legacy?

These Finals, just like the entire Playoffs, were not going to determine if Chris Paul was an all-time point guard. To all who are rational, he has long earned that reputation. But winning championships is the goal that has driven Paul to such heights in his 16-year NBA career. 

In an always loaded Western Conference and at age 36, the main goal for the Suns and CP3 was to return this organization to the Playoffs after a decade of atrocious play in the post Steve Nash-era. Now with an opportunity to capture his and his new team’s first title, Paul is cognizant of how this maybe his only chance to do so. 

Battling back from his shoulder injury and Covid protocol isolation from the team this postseason, Paul's sensational 41 point performance in Game 6 of the West Finals vs the Clippers (31 in the second half) make him the favorite to win Finals MVP at +180. 

Holiday’s inconsistent play this postseason has driven Bucks fans crazy, but he is a difficult matchup for Paul if he plays to his max salary capabilities. 

The better choice for Finals MVP to go with is Devin Booker at +250. The Suns sharp shooting guard was blunted by the Clippers defense for most of the series after exploding for a 40-point triple double in the West Finals Game 1. Although PJ Tucker will likely guard him the most, expect Booker to be relieved that no one will annoy him this series like Patrick Beverley did over the last two weeks. 

Game 1 Prediction: Bucks 99, Suns 114 

With the exception of a deep Clippers team, the Suns have been unbeatable these Playoffs against opponents not at full strength. 

Key to capitalizing off of their adversaries’ ailments has been the terrific balance of scoring Phoenix has unleash this entire season.  

Suns head coach Monty Williams has done a tremendous job making his team much more than their All-Star backcourt of Booker and Paul. Ayton is living up to his No.1 pick billing, while Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges are capable of 15-20 point and excellent wing defensive performances. More impressively, Williams has transformed his bench from a preseason weakness to instrumental in their title push. Cameron Payne has turned around his career to become a premier backup point guard, and Cameron Johnson is emerging as a recognizing three-point threat around the Association. 

The Suns just haven’t had the lapses of bad play in the Playoffs that are all too prevalent from Budenholzer’s Bucks. And although Giannis’ absence may propel Middleton, Holiday and Lopez to find their best offensively, Phoenix has brought their optimum level in all of their previous three Game 1s at home this postseason. Expect that to be the same on Tuesday night.

Series Prediction: Suns to win the title (-190), Suns to win in 5 (+400)

Make no mistake, the Bucks have a legitimate shot to win this series. They are only a +155 underdog despite the Suns clearly playing at a much higher, consistent level these Playoffs. 

Holiday will be CP3’s toughest matchup in the last two months, and the Bucks can rival or better Phoenix’s bench if Pat Connaughton and Bryn Forbes bring their best shooting. 

But this Suns team has that title destiny feel to it, with what Monty Williams has endured in his personal life and Paul’s career needing just a ring to complete his legend. The continued maturation of Booker into a superstar and Ayton showcasing his potential are evidence of a franchise more than ready to win its first championship. 

The Bucks will be buoyed by Giannis’ return at some point in this series, but it will not be enough to stop this Suns strong operation from its title destination.