NBA picks: Best bets for Tuesday night
Mike Ortiz Jr. makes his Tuesday night games picks and predictions for the 2022 NBA season, with four best bets. Plus, best picks for player props.
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Best NBA Bets Today - Tuesday 12/13: Odds, Picks and Predictions
Warriors vs Bucks Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NBA Betting Lines 12/13
Moneyline: Golden State Warriors (+155), Milwaukee Bucks (-180)
Spread: Golden State Warriors +4.5, Milwaukee Bucks -4.5
Total: Over/Under 231.5 points
Warriors vs Bucks Predictions and Pick
The Warriors put on one of their best defensive performances on Sunday as they held the Boston Celtics to 107 points, a mark that the Warriors have only held opponents under four times this season. They allowed 95 to the San Antonio Spurs back on November 14th and 101 against each of the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks and Houston Rockets. They even held Jayson Tatum, an MVP contender, to his second worst performance this season with 18 points on six of 21 shooting.
They’ll now face a Bucks team that averages 112 points per game, but has been in a recent shooting slump as they just barely beat the Mavericks 106-105 and were shut down by a well-below .500 Houston Rockets team, 92-97. The recent shooting struggles have come from behind the arc, a spot that the Bucks thrived at last season as they finished top 10 in three-point shooting percentage.
“We didn’t shoot it well enough (Sunday), Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer said. “We got a lot of threes up. We like that. We think that’s going to be good for us in the long run.”
They certainly didn’t shoot well enough. The Bucks were 12 of 43 from three-point land against the Rockets on Sunday and that’s been the case for them this season as they rank 17th in the NBA this season in three point percentage at 35 percent. And things won’t get easier for Milwaukee as they face a Warriors team that’s top-10 in the NBA in defending the three pointer.
If the Bucks want to win this game they’ll have to attack the paint, an area that they don’t look to do much despite having one of the most dominant bigs in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo. On the season the Bucks average 46 points per game in the paint which ranks 21st in the NBA and after recent shooting struggles this should be an area that they should attack. The Warriors rank 17th in post. Budenholzer said that Milwaukee will continue to shoot, but it doesn’t make sense to not attack a weakness. The Bucks focus on attacking the paint and put the Warriors back in the loss column.
The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Pelicans vs Jazz Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NBA Betting Lines 12/6 Moneyline: New Orleans Pelicans (-130), Utah Jazz (+110)
Spread: New Orleans Pelicans -2, Utah Jazz +2
Total: Over/Under 233.5 points
Pelicans vs Jazz Predictions
After starting the season at 10-3 and at the time the best team in the Western Conference, the Utah Jazz shocked the world with wins over the Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and even the New Orleans Pelicans. However, after becoming the first team in the NBA this season to 10 wins, the Jazz have had their recent struggles as they now enter their Tuesday night matchup at 15-14.
One of the keys during that losing stretch was the absence of point guard Mike Conley. In the nine games Conley missed, the Jazz were 3-6 and were a completely different team. Though the Jazz got good news on Monday as Conley, Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen are all expected to play on Tuesday night.
When these two teams met back on October 23rd, the Jazz just nearly beat the Pelicans 122-121 in overtime as Kelly Olynyk made a layup with three seconds remaining. Brandon Ingram, who left during the first quarter with a concussion, won’t play in this rematch Tuesday night as he’s missed the past seven games with a toe injury.
Not that Ingram’s presence doesn’t matter, but the Pelicans are 7-0 in his absence and are 9-1 in their last 10 games, with no signs of slowing down. In their first matchup the Jazz had a 37-point second quarter and a 30-point third quarter as they exploited this Pelicans defense. Much has changed since then as the Pelicans are eighth in the NBA in opponents’ points per game and rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
The Jazz had their Cinderella run, and while they do get Conley back, he was ineffective in their first matchup with seven points on three of 12 shooting with the Jazz’s worst +/- rating at -13. They stunned the Pelicans at home last time and New Orleans is ready to return the favor on the road in Utah.
The Pick: New Orleans Pelicans ML (-130)
Celtics vs Lakers Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NBA Betting Lines 12/6
Moneyline: Boston Celtics (-165), Los Angeles Lakers (+140)
Spread: Boston Celtics -3.5, Los Angeles Lakers +3.5
Total: Over/Under 233.5 points
Celtics vs Lakers Predictions and Pick
Every time these two teams play, whether both are bad or only one is good, it’s still must-watch television as this rivalry is still one of the best in sports. And for this primetime TNT matchup, both happen to be pretty good. The Boston Celtics enter this matchup at 21-7 and are not only the best team in the Eastern Conference, but the best in the NBA. As for the Lakers, they enter this game four games below .500 at 11-15 but are 6-4 in their last 10 games and are trending in the right direction.
A lot of that has to do with big man Anthony Davis, who’s averaging 30.9 points and 13.6 rebounds in his last 10 games, which includes his eight minutes vs. Cleveland when he left with an illness. Davis will now draw a top-10 defense in the post as the Celtics rank 8th in the NBA in points per game. And despite treading water without center Al Horford, the Celtics’ post defense has remained intact. It will be tested in this matchup as Davis isn’t comparable to the recent big guys that Boston has faced in Horford’s four game absence.
No. 1 scoring offense at 119.3 points per game will test this 27th ranked Lakers defense, which allows 116.3 points per game and has allowed 125.3 points per game in its last three games.
This game has the potential to get out of hand quickly as the Celtics can score points and score them quickly. Just ask the Phoenix Suns, who rank ninth in the NBA in opponents’ points per game and 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency as they saw both of those stats fly out the window last week. The Celtics scored 69 first half points against the Suns last Wednesday and continued to pour it on them in the third quarter, scoring 35 points.
If the Lakers want to hang in this game they’ll have to control the pace and attack the post, as they rank third in the NBA with 56.6 points in the paint per game. Without Horford, Davis and the Lakers will exploit the Celtics’ post presence. While exploiting the post will be rather easy for this Lakers team, slowing the Celtics down will be tough. Though there is a glimmer of hope as the Celtics are on the second leg of a back-to-back and were held under 100 points for the first time all season as they scored 93 on Monday night in a 113-93 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. The public is all on the Celtics to bounce back in this game and on the second leg of a back-to-back, I like the Lakers to pull the upset in this one. The Celtics’ shooting struggles will continue in the same arena that they just played at last night and they won’t have an answer for Anthony Davis.
The Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 (-110)
Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today: Tuesday 12/13
Philadelphia 76ers big man Joel Embiid has been on a tear this season, averaging 33.4 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He’s been on even more of a tear in his last four games, averaging 41.2 points and 9 rebounds. The Embiid dominance will continue on Tuesday night as he’ll face a Sacramento Kings team that ranks 25th in opponents’ points in the paint per game, and while Domantas Sabonis is a good big guy, he’s not a defender. Look for Embiid to dominate the Kings in this matchup and maybe go for 50-plus in back-to-back games and for the third time this season.
In the absence of teammate Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors’ Klay Thompson has started to catch his offensive stride again. In the three games Wiggins has missed, Thompson has scored 28, 22 and 34 points, which came in his most recent outing against the Boston Celtics. He’s also averaged three rebounds and three assists during that three-game stretch as well. Thompson has found himself as Steph Curry’s right-hand man yet again and they’ll need him to perform well against a high-scoring Milwaukee Bucks team.
Davis has been on absolute tear of late and his dominance will continue against the Boston Celtics who will be without Horford. The Lakers will have to continue to play bully ball and slow the pace down in this game as the Celtics can score quickly and in bunches. Running the ball through Davis and attacking the weak spot in this Celtics defense will be key. With 34 points and 15 rebounds followed by 31 points and 12 rebounds in his past two games, Davis will continue his MVP-caliber season with a dominant performance at home tonight. While I would normally like to attack just his points and rebounds total, I like throwing his assists in this one as I think the Celtics will throw some double teams and help defense his way, which will result in some kickouts to Lonnie Walker and Austin Reaves for three-point opportunities.