Stanley Cup Final picks: 4 bets for Lightning vs Avalanche Game 2
Andrew Berkshire provides his best NHL picks and predictions for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche.
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Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final gave us everything we could have wanted and more as fans of the game. Incredible hockey played at an incredible pace, a two-goal comeback from the reigning Stanley Cup champions that forced overtime, and the team that deserved to win struck early in overtime to take it.
The Colorado Avalanche continued their franchise tradition of dominance in Game 1 of a playoff series, and showed no rust against the Lightning. Can the Lightning adjust and even the series in Game 2?
Tampa Bay Lightning to win (+125)
The rust I expected from the Avalanche was not to be seen in the first game of this series, as they put on a dominant performance, controlling 68.5 per cent of the expected goals at 5-vs-5, and 67.7 per cent of the expected goals in all situations.
While the Lightning capitalized twice in under a minute to even the score in the second period, showing how dangerous they are when you let them have some room, overall the Avalanche were far too much for them, using their speed both off the rush and on the forecheck to create chances and force turnovers.
The Lightning were uncharacteristically flustered at times, and Andrei Vasilevskiy was shaky to start the game. Vasilevskiy was more like himself after the first period, and I expect the Lightning to make some adjustments on their breakouts to give them a better transition game against the Avalanche.
One thing has been relatively consistent with the Lightning in these playoffs: when they struggle temporarily, they lock things down. Vasilevskiy is likely to be far better in Game 2 than he was in Game 1, which should cut down the ability of the Avalanche to pile on goals, and if the Lightning can improve their defensive posture a bit to contain the Avs’ speed even slightly, it will be tough to get more than three goals.
The one worry here is that Darcy Kuemper has not been great in these playoffs, and he wasn’t great in Game 1 either, but when a team focuses so heavily on defense, it’s often difficult to generate offense at the other end, so Game 2 should be a lower scoring game than Game 1.
Steven Stamkos anytime goalscorer (+165)
When the Lightning have needed a boost in this postseason, it’s often been captain Steven Stamkos who has answered the call. Scoring both goals in Game 6 against the New York Rangers, for example.
It’s wild to think that this team won the Cup two years ago with Stamkos not even playing, but he has truly seen a career renaissance this season, the best one he’s had in a long time.
Highest scoring period: 2nd (+215)
The way the Lightning were able to create chances in the first game was by taking advantage of Avalanche misplays at the Tampa blueline and inside their own zone, sending quick passes up the ice to create rushes.
In the second period, with the long change, there’s a higher chance of sneaking forwards on a line change behind the Avalanche defense. The long change always creates more opportunity for broken plays, and the Lightning are excellent at taking advantage of those.
