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Thanksgiving brings many time old traditions. Whether it’s the Thanksgiving Day Parade or a family roast turkey and all the trimmings, it’s a holiday to celebrate, and a slate of three NFL games on Thursday afternoon and evening only adds to those celebrations.

The Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys are regular features on Thanksgiving, but the introduction of a primetime game in 2006 meant that we now get to endure back-to-back-to-back football with a belly full of Thanksgiving dinner.

Let’s get into the games, and our favorite picks for the Thanksgiving Day NFL games.

Best NFL Bets for Thanksgiving football games: Picks, Predictions, Odds & Schedules

NFL Thanksgiving Schedule – Bills @ Lions

Buffalo Bills (7-3, 3-2 Away) vs Detroit Lions (4-6, 2-3 Home)
Date: Thursday, November 24th, 2022
Time: 12:30p.m. EST
Venue: Ford Field — Detroit, Michigan
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: Fubo TV
Live Radio: Sirius XM

The Detroit Lions play host to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday afternoon, opening the Thanksgiving slate. Detroit come into the game having won their last three, including an impressive road victory against the New York Giants on Sunday.

The Buffalo Bills' form has dipped in recent weeks following back-to-back losses to both the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings in overtime. Buffalo snapped the streak by beating the Cleveland Browns last weekend, but their performances have certainly been less convincing than they were early in the season.

Bills vs Lions Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Week 12 Odds

Moneyline: Buffalo Bills -400, Detroit Lions +310

Spread: Buffalo Bills -9.5, Detroit Lions +9.5

Total: Over/Under 54.5 points

Bills vs Lions Preview

The Lions were in a slump just three weeks back having lost five on the bounce and subsequently sitting at 1-6 on the season. Detroit had seemingly regressed from the progress they’d made the year before with ugly losses to the Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots, who shut them out entirely.

However, the Lions seem to have turned a corner in recent weeks and ironed out a lot of their issues. While they came up a little short against the Miami Dolphins in Week 8, they looked a lot better offensively, and the momentum of that performance has carried them into three straight wins in the following weeks.

The Bills have faced their own adversities in recent weeks, including a snow storm that buried their home stadium, but more so with an injury to quarterback Josh Allen.

Allen suffered an elbow sprain to his throwing arm during the Bills' loss to the New York Jets that sparked rumors he might miss some playing time. The Bills quarterback has been playing through the injury and seems to be managing the pain just fine having been able to throw 43 passes against Minnesota, but they still fell short in overtime.

Injuries have been a key feature in Buffalo’s season so far, and the team is far from healthy. The elite safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer was ripped in half early in the year when Hyde suffered a season ending neck injury in Week 2. Poyer has missed time himself but was active on Sunday against Cleveland, while the Bills were also without linebacker Trumaine Edmunds, pass rusher Greg Rousseau and rookie cornerback Kaiir Elam.

Bills vs Lions Predictions & NFL Picks Thanksgiving Day – Game 1

Detroit is executing better in recent weeks. Jared Goff was not sacked in two of the three wins in recent weeks, and he’s only thrown one interception in those games combined. The Lions are happy relying on their run game, especially in the red zone, and Jamaal Williams has emerged as the league leader in touchdowns as a result.

Williams rushed for three touchdowns on Sunday against a New York Giants defense that had no answer for him and the offensive line's push down by the goal line. Amon-Ra St Brown has been influential in all three wins, averaging over 10 yards per catch across those games, including the 119-yard receiving game he had against Chicago.

While I respect the talent of the Buffalo Bills, I think the line is a little disrespectful to the Lions considering their recent form. Detroit are moving the football offensively and have scored 31 points a game in their last two. They can hang with the Bills, and their defense has started to force turnovers in recent weeks.

I like the Lions to cover the spread if they can contain the deep ball and eliminate explosive plays from Josh Allen and the Bills.

The Pick: Detroit Lions +9.5 (-110)

While the Bills are one of the league's powerhouse franchises right now when they’re healthy, the injury list certainly hasn’t been making things easy for them. Facing a gritty Detroit Lions team on a three-game win streak on Thanksgiving is no walkover, and a depleted defense doesn’t make it any easier.

The Lions are eighth in point scoring while Buffalo sit second. These two teams can move the football down the field and they’re not afraid of taking some risks offensively. I feel like we’ll see a fairly close game and plenty of points.

The Pick: Over 54.5 Points (-110)

Best Bills Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 12

Stefon Diggs

Here’s a theory. Stefon Diggs was visibly frustrated against the Cleveland Browns when he found himself without a single target late in the first half. He was seen having a one-to-one conversation with head coach Sean McDermott on the sideline before the Bills offense returned to the field.

Diggs caught a touchdown pass right before the half that marked his first catch of the day, but it was largely the Bills running game that took center stage against the Browns.

So, with that in mind and against a Detroit Lions team that struggles against the pass, I’m expecting to see Stefon Diggs written back into the game plan early and often. Detroit is 28th in pass defense and Diggs has shown multiple times this season that he can take over a game with 10+ receptions.

The Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions (-130)

NFL Schedule for Thanksgiving Day – Giants @ Cowboys

New York Giants (7-3, 2-1 Away) vs Dallas Cowboys (7-3, 4-1 Home)
Date: Thursday, November 24th, 2022
Time: 4:30p.m. EST
Venue: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
TV Channel: FOX
Live Stream: FuboTV
Live Radio: Sirius XM

The New York Giants will be bitterly disappointed with their performance against Detroit on Sunday, having struggled against a Lions team that they would have hoped to beat.

The same can’t be said for the Dallas Cowboys as they totally overwhelmed a Minnesota Vikings team that was 8-1 going into the game. Dallas has some serious momentum going into Thanksgiving Day football, and the Giants will need to dust themselves off and get back on track in a hurry to avoid any damaging collapse.

Will this Giants vs Cowboys Thanksgiving game follow a similar trend to the weekend’s performances?

Giants vs Cowboys Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 12

Moneyline: New York Giants +310, Dallas Cowboys -400

Spread: New York Giants +9.5, Dallas Cowboys -9.5

Total: Over/Under 44.5 points

Giants vs Cowboys Preview

The Giants performance on Sunday was uncharacteristic for how they’ve played this season, but they were simply outplayed by Detroit.

The Lions defense, which has been statistically the worst in the league this season, totally nullified the Giants run game. Saquon Barkley had 22 rushing yards on 15 attempts and averaged 1.5 yards per carry. Because he was removed from the game by Detroit's run defense, the game was forced into Daniel Jones' hands.

Since Brian Daboll's arrival, the game plan has been clear. Win at the line of scrimmage, re-establish the run, and allow Daniel Jones to manage a game without applying too much pressure. They failed to do all those things against the Lions, and Jones was forced to throw the football 44 times, more than any other game this season.

That’s where it went wrong. We have seen this year that Jones can manage a game with effective play calling and a good game plan, but if you’re relying on him to go and win the game solely with arm talent it doesn’t work out so well, especially with a below average group of wide receivers.

Dallas played their best game of the year against Minnesota in what turned into a beatdown of one of the league's most successful teams in a hurry.

It all stems from the Cowboys defensive line. Kirk Cousins was pressured and pushed around the entire game, eventually being sacked a season-high seven times. Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence and the rest of the unit bullied the Vikings offensive line, and in doing so took away any opportunity for the Vikings to run the play action they love to run.

Cousins was only able to throw for 105 passing yards, 70 yards lower than his previous season low against Miami, and superstar wideout Justin Jefferson was therefore unable to impact the game.

Giants vs Cowboys Predictions & NFL Picks Thanksgiving Day – Game 2

This one doesn’t shape up well at all for the Giants. We just saw New York lose their battle at the line of scrimmage and fail to get any push whatsoever on the Detroit Lions defensive line. Saquon Barkley's 22 yards rushing meant he was unable to impact the game at all, and they will now go straight from that performance to facing arguably the best defensive front in the league right now four days later.

The spread is quite heavy considering this Giants team is 7-3 this season, but this game will once again be heavily dictated by the battle in the trenches, and the Cowboys overpower the Giants there in a landslide.

It's also worth noting that New York lost standout rookie receiver Wan’Dale Robinson for the season on Sunday, meaning even less weapons at their disposal.

The Pick: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 (-110)

Both teams are struggling to hit overs this season. The Giants are 2-7-1 while Dallas is 3-6-1 on hitting those totals. That being said, Dallas is gaining momentum and getting healthier offensively, resulting in more scoring.

The Cowboys are averaging 39 points a game in their last three outings, and while the Giants are struggling lately, they can score enough points to contribute to the over.

The Pick: Over 44.5 Points (-110)

NFL Thanksgiving Day Schedule – Patriots @ Vikings

New England Patriots (6-4, 3-2 Away) vs Minnesota Vikings (8-2, 4-1 Home)
Date: Thursday, November 24th, 2022
Time: 8:20p.m. EST
Venue: US Bank Stadium — Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV Channel: NBC
Live Stream: FuboTV
Live Radio: Sirius XM

Minnesota crumbled on Sunday under the pressure of the Dallas Cowboys defense. Kirk Cousins was constantly under duress and allowed no time to look downfield as a result. Any game that ends with your quarterback getting sacked seven times is going to be a tough game to win, but Minnesota managed just three points and were totally exposed by the Cowboys

The Patriots struggled to move the ball offensively themselves, relying on a last-minute punt return from rookie Marcus Jones to settle the score at 10-3. Quarterback Mac Jones is back in the lineup having been benched for rookie Bailey Zappe, and converted over 85 per cent of his passes in Sunday's game. New England just lacks that magic in the final third.

Patriots vs Vikings Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - Betting Lines NFL Thanksgiving Day

Moneyline: New England Patriots +125, Minnesota Vikings -150

Spread: New England Patriots +2.5, Minnesota Vikings -2.5

Total: Over/Under 42.5 points

The Minnesota Vikings will be hoping that the weekend's dreadful outing was a fluke, and that they’ll return to winning form on Thanksgiving. While that is entirely possible, this team has not been winning games all that convincingly all season.

Except for the Week 1 drubbing of the Green Bay Packers, every Minnesota win has been by a single possession margin of eight or less. That includes a tight game against the Detroit Lions early in the season and beating the Miami Dolphins without their starting quarterback.

Minnesota are a good team, but they’re not yet a great team. They’re unable to put teams away convincingly and, barring the elite talent of Justin Jefferson and the occasional breakaway run from Dalvin Cook, the offense feels distinctly average. They were exposed by the Cowboys as a team that will struggle if you knock them off their fairly straightforward game plan, which revolves heavily around play action to Justin Jefferson.

Does that make them a team that Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots are able to stop?

I’m not quite sure what the New England Patriots are doing this season, but the regression of the offense is extremely concerning. Belichick suffers the loss of his coaching staff regularly, and although most of them making their way back eventually, this year it’s very noticeable. While Josh McDaniels is struggling with the Las Vegas Raiders as the team's head coach, he was a very successful offensive coordinator under Belichick for over a decade and won’t be easily replaced.

Mac Jones looks a shadow of his former self, and without any standout talent the offense is failing to get anything going. The Patriots are 26th in yards per game and 24th in passing yards, and clearly aren’t convinced with their quarterback situation as it stands.

Patriots vs Vikings Predictions & NFL Thanksgiving Picks - Game 3

The Dallas Cowboys made light work of the Vikings offense on Sunday, but that is not easily done. While the Patriots defense put on a good show against the New York Jets at the weekend, the Vikings offense is far more explosive and difficult to cover.

The Patriots defensive line is not the Cowboys defensive line, and Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and co will likely return to a level of productive form on Thursday night primetime. Make no mistake, this is a good Patriots defense. They’re disciplined and they don’t tend to let teams run away with the game very often. In fact, the only time they’ve allowed more than 17 points in their last six games was against the Chicago Bears.

I have the Vikings winning the game here, but it should be a low-scoring affair.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110)

Like I said, low scoring feels appropriate for this game. Minnesota will likely be just a little too much for New England on the night.

The Patriots have struggled to find the end zone through the air at all this year with just nine passing touchdowns. Pair that with their defense slowing down Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson just enough, and we should have a fairly low-scoring contest.

The Pick: Under 42.5 Points (-110)

Best Thanksgiving NFL Player Prop Bets

Mac Jones

Mac Jones has thrown 30 or more pass attempts in five of the six games he’s started and finished this season. The only exception was the weekend’s game against the New York Jets.

In a game where the strength of the Vikings defense is clearly the front seven, I’d expect to see a smart gameplan from Belichick and the Patriots that targets a weaker secondary, barring Patrick Peterson, who’s playing exceptionally well.

So, with that in mind, I think we see Mac Jones throw over the 30.5 total for a lot of short yardage gains to his group of receivers. They will look to play methodical football that keeps the game away from the Vikings explosive offense.

The Pick: Mac Jones Over 30.5 Passing Attempts (-115)