NFL Futures Betting: 2021 Super Bowl picks and win totals
Zach Brunner's NFL betting picks for the 2021 season include the defending Super Bowl champions to win it all again, plus two division winner parlays and two over/under win totals.
Super Bowl winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600
Teams that go all-in and to win a Super Bowl aren’t supposed to be capable of doing what the Buccaneers have done this offseason.
After taking home the Lombardi Trophy last season, they were able to bring everybody back. Players have taken pay cuts because they know they have the opportunity to run it back and win another Super Bowl with Tom Brady.
The Buccaneers got off to a slow start last season and didn’t hit their stride until late in the year, but rode that high to a championship. They’ve now had a true offseason together, which should be scary for everyone. Brady’s influence should truly have its effect this season.
Motivation is an important word here. Brady was motivated to win a Super Bowl last season and prove he didn’t need Bill Belichick to be successful. This season, Brady finally gets to play in front of a Tampa Bay home crowd.
The Bucs also have the chance to be the first team to go 17-0 in the regular season. The added week creates the opportunity for records to be broken, and the Buccaneers will be motivated to do just that.
Division winner parlay: Kansas City Chiefs & Tampa Bay Buccaneers +110
There isn’t a single team in the NFC South that can challenge the Buccaneers.
The Saints have taken multiple steps backwards after having to release several players to get under the salary cap. The Panthers have holes on defense and Sam Darnold as their quarterback. The Falcons have a first-year head coach, a mediocre quarterback and a poor defense.
The AFC West, on the other hand, is very talented. Still, the Chiefs are the cream of the crop.
After getting embarrassed in the Super Bowl, they have reloaded and look motivated to prove that was a fluke. There has even been talk of pushing for 17-0.
While this may seem inconsequential since everyone is trying to win all of their games, the Chiefs looked uninterested at times during the 2020 regular season. They may look to step on the throats of their opponents this season.
Division winner parlay: Green Bay Packers & Tampa Bay Buccaneers +145
There is no need to discuss the Buccaneers anymore. For the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is back in Green Bay for one “last dance.” The team knows this is their final Super Bowl push. They have had back-to-back 13-win seasons, and there is zero reason for that not to happen again.
The Packers’ division will also help them push past this win total. The Bears’ offensive line is so bad that they are rolling out Andy Dalton at quarterback instead of rookie Justin Fields. The Lions may have the worst roster in the NFL.
Finally, the Vikings are the Vikings. They used to pride themselves on their defense, but it was downright terrible last season, allowing the fourth-most points in the league.
Minnesota’s answer to this was adding Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland to be their starting cornerbacks. In other words, even Andy Dalton will have a solid passing day against them.
Green Bay Packers over 10 Wins -165
With an extra game on the schedule, Aaron Rodgers’ final season in Green Bay is not going to feature the team losing four more games.
The Packers have also been given a gift in Week 1. Due to Hurricane Ida, their game with the New Orleans Saints has been moved to Jacksonville.
New Orleans is one of the tougher places to play, so essentially eliminating one dangerous road game is very good news for Green Bay.
Detroit Lions under 4.5 Wins +115
This Detroit Lions team is terrible. They downgraded at quarterback from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff. We have seen Goff really struggle as a dropback quarterback; he needs play-action to succeed, but with this receiving corps, teams will be selling out against the run.
The wide receiver depth chart for the Lions features Tyrell Williams, Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus and Amon-Ra St. Brown. We saw how bad Goff was with good receivers, it’s hard to see him improving with this group.
The Lions do have talent in the backfield, with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. However, Swift enters the season already banged up. Oh, and the defense is just as bad as the offense.
There is no reason to believe Detroit wins over four games this season.