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Jonnu Smith under 2.5 receptions (-200)

Smith got a little extra work against his former team last week, catching three passes. We have to go all the way back to Week 4 to find the last time he was able to do that.

Simply, Smith doesn’t have a very large role in this passing offense, and there’s no reason for that to change tonight. 

Cole Beasley over 31.5 receiving yards (-110)

The Patriots are a great defense and have strong cornerback play on the outside. The soft spot for the Bills to attack will be in the slot, which is where Beasley thrives.

We have seen quarterback Josh Allen lean on Beasley in big games, and tonight is certainly a big game that will have a playoff atmosphere. 

Mac Jones over 203.5 passing yards (-115)

While rookie quarterback Jones isn’t a high-volume, flashy passer, this prop line is set too low for this kind of game. Yes, the Bills have been rock solid against the pass this season, but they lost Tre'Davious White, their top cornerback, to injury.

This pass defense is likely to look a bit different going forward, and Jones will have a much easier time passing the ball as a result.

Damien Harris anytime touchdown (+150)

When the Patriots get in close, Harris is the name they call. Instead of letting a rookie quarterback throw the ball on the goal line, Bill Belichick knows it is wiser to run it in, and Harris is the player they look to most often in this regard.

Harris already has eight rushing touchdowns in 11 games. We have also seen the Bills give up big performances on the ground this season, most notably in the form of a five-touchdown day for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor in Week 11.