NFL betting picks: 5 best player props for Week 1
Zach Brunner picks out five NFL player prop betting picks for Sunday's Week 1 games.
Visit Betway’s NFL picks page for picks and predictions throughout the season.
There are plenty of exciting games on the schedule to bet on in Week 1, but that’s not the only way to have some skin in the game.
NFL player props are an exciting way to bet. Those who are fantasy football players may have an easy adjustment to player props, since it’s all above matchups and evaluating the individual player. Here are five NFL player props I like for Sunday’s games.
Mike Davis rushing attempts: Over 12.5 (+105)
After being a career backup, Davis was thrust into the lead-back role for the Panthers last season after an injury to Christian McCaffrey.
He looked solid as an every-down back, which led to the Atlanta Falcons signing him to play exactly that role for them. With Cordarrelle Patterson listed as the RB2, there is no true threat to steal carries from Davis.
If I can more than double my money having a lead back carry the ball 13 times at home in a game his team is favored, that is the easiest pick in the world to make.
Running the offense for the Falcons this season is Arthur Smith, who came over from Tennessee. His offense has featured a bell-cow back, and it’s possible he gives Davis the opportunity in Week 1 to earn that role for 2021.
Miles Sanders rushing yards: Over 68.5 (-110)
In the same game, Miles Sanders will be running against a Falcons front seven that is one of the worst in the NFL.
On top of that, many people forget just how good this Philadelphia Eagles offensive line is when healthy. This is probably the healthiest they will be all season long, and they will be creating running lanes all game. The threat of a mobile quarterback also helps.
Even with a beat-up line last season, Sanders ran for over 69 yards in half of his 12 games. He ran for at least 64 yards in eight of 12.
Alvin Kamara receptions: Over 5.5 (+120)
The New Orleans Saints play their second home game in a row against the Green Bay Packers without the advantage of their home crowd. On top of that, the Saints let receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook walk in free agency, while Michael Thomas waited late to get offseason surgery and is out.
The Saints also recently released running back Latavius Murray. In other words, this is about to be a heavy Alvin Kamara game, much like it was last season against the Packers when he totaled 13 receptions for 139 yards and two touchdowns.
The Saints need the offense to run through Kamara both on the ground and through the air. He has averaged over 5.4 receptions per game for his career, and could even double that on Sunday.
Alvin Kamara Rushing + Receiving Yards: Over 111.5 (-110)
Continuing with that theme, Kamara is the Saints’ best weapon by far. The Packers do not have the personnel capable of defending him, and their expected blitz-heavy scheme could allow for many drop-off passes to Kamara in space.
Last season, Kamara averaged 112.5 total yards per game. In the game against the Packers, he totaled 197 yards. My projection has him around 120 for Sunday with over 20 touches.
Andy Dalton passing yards: Over 209.5 (-110)
On Sunday Night Football, Andy Dalton will be the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears as they face off with the Los Angeles Rams.
While the Rams had one of the best defenses last season, they lost their coordinator and multiple starters in their secondary, so it may be easier to pass against them than many think. The Bears offensive line is also not good, so a pass-heavy approach may be the result.
Projecting a veteran like Dalton for just 210 passing yards is disrespectful. He has a few talented receiving weapons to utilize, and the Bears are projected to lose this game, meaning Dalton will likely be throwing to catch up. As long as he plays the full game, this should be an easy over to hit.