NFL Wild Card picks: Best bets for Dolphins vs Bills
Mike Ortiz Jr. makes his NFL picks and predictions for Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills in the Super Wild Card round of the 2023 NFL playoffs.
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AFC Wild Card Playoff Schedule - Dolphins @ Bills
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Schedule
Miami Dolphins (9-8, 3-6 Away) vs Buffalo Bills (13-3, 7-1 Home)
Date: Sunday 15 January 2023
Time: 1:05 pm EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium - Orchard Park, New York
TV Channel: CBS
Live Stream: FuboTV, NFL+
Live Radio: Dolphins - WBGG/WINZ, Sirius 85. Bills - WGRF 96.9 FM, Sirius 104
Dolphins vs Bills Preview
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will miss his third straight game due to concussion symptoms as he’s still not been cleared by doctors to return. While backup Teddy Bridgewater remains limited, it looks like rookie Skylar Thompson will make his third start of the season on Sunday against Buffalo.
The Bills will look to continue their momentum from Week 18 in Buffalo as they’ll face a hungry Dolphins team without their starting quarterback.
Dolphins vs Bills Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under – NFL Wild Card Odds
Moneyline: Miami Dolphins (+600), Buffalo Bills (-850)
Spread: Miami Dolphins +13.5, Buffalo Bills -13.5
Total: Over/Under 43.5
Dolphins vs Bills Predictions and Wild Card Picks
While the Dolphins had Tagovailoa in both matchups this season against the Bills, it was actually Dolphins defense that shined. In their first matchup, which Miami won 21-19, Tagovailoa only had 186 yards on 13 completions for one touchdown. In their second matchup, which the Bills won 32-29, Tagovailoa had 17 completions for 136 yards and two touchdowns.
So, for this spread to be as high as it is just doesn’t make any sense. The Dolphins will have cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb healthy and back on the field. Linebackers Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker, defensive end Christian Wilkins and safety Jevon Holland will all be ready to go as well. This Dolphins defense is better than their stats suggest.
While moving the ball will be harder for Thompson than it would be for Tagovailoa, the Dolphins still have a productive backfield and two elite speedster receivers on the outside in Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, who cause nightmares for opposing defenses. Head coach Mike McDaniel is a very creative coach who will find ways to put his team in successful situations on offense. If I were running the offense in Miami, I’d keep it short and sweet and run intermediate routes and quick slants through a hurry-up offense and feed Waddle and Hill on every drive. Yes, the Bills secondary is elite and only improves with safety Micah Hyde back, but the speed from Waddle and Hill is elite as well and is a true matchup nightmare for even the best of the best secondary players.
The Buffalo Bills are likely going to win this game, but two touchdowns is pushing it. The Dolphins certainly teetered after their Week 11 bye, but this team did have some injuries and had a really tough schedule against the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, Packers and a hungry Patriots team.
Give me the Dolphins and the points in this one.
The Pick: Miami Dolphins +13.5 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills offense rack up an average of 397.6 total yards and 28.4 points per game, both ranking second in the NFL behind the Kansas Chiefs. They’ve scored 30 points or more in nine of their 16 games and quarterback Josh Allen is one of the best in the NFL. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is fourth amongst wide receivers in receptions and yards and third in the NFL in receiving touchdowns in another Pro Bowl season. Their chemistry will cause nightmares for this Dolphins secondary that better bring their A-game on Sunday.
In their past three postseason games, the Bills have scored 36 points or more, and will have a good chance to top 30 again on Sunday. If the Dolphins keep the offense simple and let Thompson get his playmakers involved, then we could have a shootout at Orchard Park on Sunday.
The Pick: Over 43.5 (-110)
Best Dolphins vs Bills Player Prop Bets Today
Josh Allen
Josh Allen has thrown for two or more passing touchdowns in 11 of his 16 games this season and in four of his last five postseason matchups as well.
He draws a Dolphins secondary that has been inconsistent this season. Even though they’ll be healthier than they’ve been in weeks, Allen will still find a way to get two or more passing touchdowns in this one.
The Pick: Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-145)
Jerome Baker
Linebacker Jerome Baker is the second-leading tackler for this Dolphins defense and, in two games against the Bills this season, Baker has 19 total tackles. He has exceeded double digit tackles three times this season and has exceeded his current prop line of 5.5 seven times this season.
In a game where the Dolphins are likely going to be playing more defense than offense, I love this over here as Baker is a menace on the defensive end.
