NFL picks: Best bets for Week 11
Mike Ortiz Jr. makes his football picks and predictions for Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season, with five NFL best bets for Sunday.
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Best NFL Bets Week 11: Odds, Picks and Predictions
Bears vs Falcons Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 11
Moneyline: Chicago Bears (+140), Atlanta Falcons (-165)
Spread: Chicago Bears +3, Atlanta Falcons -3
Total: Over/Under 49.5 points
Bears vs Falcons Predictions and Pick
The Chicago Bears offense has been red-hot over the past four weeks, averaging 31 points per game. That's a 10-point uptick from their season average of 21.7 points per game and a lot of that is due to the great quarterback play from Justin Fields. Fields' dual-threat ability is causing problems as he’s rushed for 468 yards during that four-game stretch including a 178-yard rushing performance and a 147-yard rushing performance last week against the Detroit Lions. Fields will now draw an Atlanta Falcons defense that’s the second worst in the league as they allow an average of 399.5 yards per game.
As for the Chicago defense, don’t get fooled by their middle-of-the-pack ranking, as their 345.4 yards allowed per game still leads to a lot of points against. In the Bears' last three games they’ve allowed an average of 38.3 points per game. That is not a typo and it’s not bad math. The Dallas Cowboys scored 49 points in Week 8, the Miami Dolphins put up 35 in Week 9 and they did a little better in Week 10, holding the Detroit Lions to 31 points.
If you love offense and scoring then this is your game to watch this week as there will be plenty of it. And even if you don’t tune in, you’ll see this game a lot on your redzone channel as there will be a ton of scoring. Don’t blink and take the over in this one.
The Pick: Over 49.5 (-110)
Bengals vs Steelers Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 11
Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals (-205), Pittsburgh Steelers (+170)
Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -4, Pittsburgh Steelers +4
Total: Over/Under 40.5 points
Bengals vs Steelers Predictions
The last time these two teams met was back in Week 1 when the Pittsburgh Steelers upset the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 in overtime. Pro Bowl linebacker T.J. Watt left the game with 16 seconds left with a pectoral injury that would keep him out until last week against the New Orleans Saints. Watt didn’t get a sack in his Week 10 return but he helped lead the Steelers to a 20-10 victory over the Saints.
During his absence, the Steelers saw the emergence of third-year linebacker Alex Highsmith, who’s been a savior for this defense with 8.5 sacks (tied for fourth in the NFL) in just nine games. The dynamic duo will now draw a Bengals offensive line that has struggled to keep quarterback Joe Burrow protected as they’re tied for the second most sacks allowed in the league with 32.
The Bengals are coming off of a bye week and, before their bye, they rolled through the Carolina Panthers 42-21 on the back of running back Joe Mixon’s four touchdown, 157-yard rushing performance, and only allowed Burrow to get sacked once. But things will be different in this one as the Steelers will have both Watt and Highsmith pressuring Burrow and this offensive line. With star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase still out with a hip injury, the Bengals offense will go back to it’s stagnant ways in this one as the Steelers will just have to stack the box and rush the passer.
The struggles for rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett will continue as this Bengals defense is a stingy bunch who’s slowed down much better offenses this season, including the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys offenses, who both had their backup quarterbacks in during those games.
The Pick: Under 40 (-105)
Cowboys vs Vikings Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under - NFL Betting Lines Week 11
Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys (-125), Minnesota Vikings (+105)
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -1.5, Minnesota Vikings +1.5
Total: Over/Under 48 points
Cowboys vs Vikings Predictions and Pick
I know you guys are already drinking the Minnesota Vikings Kool-Aid, probably chugging it at this point, but if you haven’t sipped it yet, pour it out now. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are coming off an enormous fourth-quarter collapse at Lambeau Field to the Green Bay Packers, but that only adds more fuel to their fire. Yes, the Vikings are red hot at 8-1 and are coming off an impressive 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills, but this is still the same team that struggled to beat the Detroit Lions in Week 3, still the same team that fought tooth-and-nail with the Arizona Cardinals, and still the same team that squeaked by the New Orleans Saints and the Washington Commanders. Don’t get fooled by their records and by public perception.
I’ll also go one step further, I won’t even break down the ins and outs of this game as to why the Dallas Cowboys will win. I’ll do you guys one better, by teaching you all a valuable lesson: you’re not smarter than Vegas. Look at where this line opened at, Cowboys +1, and look at where it’s at today, Cowboys -1.5. Now look at where the money is at - it’s about a 50/50 split, so why did it move it that much? Also, the Cowboys went from an underdog to a favorite. That’s two key indicators here that are begging you to follow the smart money and bet the Dallas Cowboys.
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys ML (-125)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Sunday Football Week 11
Brian Robinson Jr.
I don’t like to use the word easy, but this one seems to be too easy. The Washington Commanders love to run the football and let Robinson Jr. carry the ball 26 times on Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders now draw the worst run defense in the league in the Houston Texans.
Robinson's rushing prop is currently sitting at 63.5 and he just rushed for 86 yards against a superior Eagles run defense. The Commanders also still utilize Antonio Gibson in the backfield as well - it’s about a 50/50 split as far as snaps go - but don’t overthink this one here.
The Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. over 63.5 rushing yards (-125)
Michael Gallup
With the emergence of Michael Gallup as the true No. 2 wide receiver in Dallas, the fifth-year wideout hasn’t lived up to his expectations this season as many believed that this would be Gallup’s breakout year. There are some factors to consider, including that Gallup is recovering from an ACL injury, and starting Quarterback Dak Prescott was out for multiple weeks with a thumb injury.
Though the two are both back and healthy, Gallup draws a very favorable matchup against rookie cornerback Akayleb Evans, who Prescott will absolutely pick apart on Sunday. Expect a big game out of Gallup on Sunday.
