College Football Playoff: National Championship Game picks
Alex Buck makes his picks and predictions for the College Football Playoff final between the Georgia Bulldogs and TCU Horned Frogs.
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We haven’t witnessed back-to-back games as good as the College Football Playoff semifinals in a long time. TCU went 12 rounds with the Michigan Wolverines and came out on top despite going into the game as the underdog. Georgia, meanwhile, escaped Ohio State in the final seconds to secure a spot in their second National Championship game in as many years.
The Bulldogs will now meet TCU in Inglewood, California, with the SoFi Stadium playing host for the big game. Georgia has a title to defend and the oddsmakers have them as massive favorites to retain it, with the moneyline set at -435. TCU are massive underdogs once again (+350) and have absolutely nothing to lose as they aim to put the crown jewel on a Cinderella story season.
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs No. 3 TCU – 2023 College Football National Championship Game
After two sensational games and deserving performances from both sides, the Horned Frogs and the Bulldogs will now face off for the national title in the ninth rendition of the college football playoff structure.
TCU is the first Big 12 team to feature in the final, while Georgia represents the eighth year in a row that the SEC has had a team make it to the big game.
Georgia vs TCU Odds, Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under – CFB National Championship Odds
Moneyline: TCU Horned Frogs +350, Georgia Bulldogs -435
Spread: TCU Horned Frogs +12.5, Georgia Bulldogs -12.5
Total: Over/Under 62.5
The TCU Horned Frogs hung 51 points on the Michigan Wolverines in a game for the ages that sent them to the big stage to take on the number one team in the country.
After a heart-breaking Big 12 Championship loss to the Kansas State Wildcats, TCU got back to work ahead of a thunderous clash against a Big Ten powerhouse in the Michigan Wolverines.
The Horned Frogs needed to start the game well, and as the events of the game unfolded it turned out to be the perfect scenario for Max Duggan and co. TCU got up 21-3 in the first half and from there were able to control the game and play their way.
Michigan made a heavy push in the second half but it was TCU who threw the final gut punch with a 76-yard touchdown after a short catch over the middle for star wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The electric play put TCU out of sight and from there they were able to close out the game.
Johnston came up clutch for his team and showed the world why he is a first-round draft talent with six catches for 163 yards against the Wolverines. This included the 76-yard scamper that saw the six-foot-three wideout escape a tackle and outrun the Michigan defense for the game-clinching touchdown.
While I love the production and ability of Johnston, I do fear for the alternative playmakers at Max Duggan's disposal. Especially against a very capable and talented Georgia Bulldogs secondary.
Georgia will trust they can cover one-on-ones against Duggan's other receivers and therefore may double down on Johnston in an attempt to take him out of the game. If this does end up happening, Duggan will need his other playmakers to step up under the bright lights if they want to win the game.
Outside of Johnston, no other receiver had more than two catches, and only one of those players contributed more than 12 yards.
TCU could be further hampered by the loss of Kendre Miller if he is not fit to play in the title game on Monday Night. Miller has 1,399 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns for the Horned Frogs this season but exited the game against Michigan after getting twisted up in a tackle in the first half. Miller has a right knee injury and is currently questionable for the game.
That said, senior Emari Demarcado came into the game to replace Miller and did a stellar job of keeping the ground game ticking. The fifth-year senior has been with TCU since 2018 but has never truly broken into the lineup, and may need to emulate the 150-yard night he had against Michigan again against the Bulldogs.
The Horned Frogs defense deserves credit for the forced turnovers that they immediately converted into points with two pick-sixes for both Dee Winters and Bud Clark. The two touchdowns made a key difference in the game and are a hefty contributor to the reason TCU are in the national title game. Those takeaways sent Michigan home, but is it something they can replicate in California?
The Bulldogs found themselves in a phenomenal semi-final of their own on New Year's Eve, scraping by the Ohio State Buckeyes to book their ticket to the title game and generate the opportunity to win back-to-back National Championships. While it’s Georgia's name in the ring against TCU, it was not without a few scares from the Buckeyes.
CJ Stroud had a great game with 348 passing yards and four passing touchdowns while taking off another 12 times for 34 yards and a few key first downs. What impressed me the most about the Bulldogs was they navigated a very difficult game against an explosive offense, that can score a lot of points thanks to some big pass plays.
Stetson Bennett and the offense answered the call, with Bennett throwing for a career-high 398 passing yards, and what a time to do it to help send his team to their second consecutive title game.
In my semi-final analysis, my concern was how Georgia would compete with the Buckeyes if CJ Stroud and co were able to score 40+ points. The Bulldogs haven't had a Marvin Harrison Jr or Emeke Egbuka this season, with their lead pass catcher being tight end Brock Bowers over the middle. This is where sophomore Arian Smith made a name for himself.
Smith had eight catches going into the semi-final in his college football career. He redshirted in 2020, caught three balls in 2021, and had just three catches again this season before the New Year's Eve game against the Buckeyes.
Smith ran a superb route that put his man-to-man defender on the ground with less than nine minutes to go in the fourth quarter of the game and the Bulldogs trailing by 11 points. He sold inside before breaking to the boundary and found himself wide open for a 76-yard touchdown.
Georgia might have found themselves a new threat just in time, with Smith possessing the speed to run an estimated 4.28 40-yard dash. He caught three balls against Ohio State for 129 yards and a touchdown, matching his receptions total for the entire season in one night.
The Bulldogs will need to tidy up defensively against TCU, but I do believe they have fewer threats to worry about. If they can diffuse the threat of Quentin Johnston, it’ll be up to TCU’s depth chart at wide receiver to provide a spark. This could come from the likes of Taye Barber if called upon.
Georgia vs TCU Predictions and Pick
TCU finds themselves an even bigger underdog for the title game after overcoming the 7.5-point underdog spread and beating Michigan to advance. TCU has been a great spread bet all season and the Cincinnati Bengals of college football with a strong 10-3-1 record ATS so far this year.
We've been fond bettors of the Horned Frogs here on the blog and they've served us extremely well this year. Max Duggan is a national treasure. He won the hearts of football fans around the world with his emotional delivery after the Big 12 Championship loss. Winning the National Championship would be the perfect redemption song, but the SEC giants mark a new level of opponent, and it might just be a step too far.
TCU's season has been nothing short of miraculous, but they haven't always blown teams away. They have often relied on some last-minute heroics or a game-winning drive to keep the dream alive. While I believe they can cover this spread, going out and beating the Bulldogs would once again require a very favorable turnover scenario. Another two pick-sixes would go a long way to making this possible, but they'll need another mega day from their offensive stars, Quentin Johnston and Kendre Miller (who might be on the sideline).
I completely back the Bulldogs to win the game but still believe the Horned Frogs will cover the spread bet, despite the opponent being an SEC powerhouse.
Max Duggan and co should hold their heads high, they have given us an incredible story to cover this season and deserve every minute of that title shot. The Big 12 underdog versus the SEC title defender, what a game in store.
