College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions
Alex Buck makes his college football picks and predictions for Week 5, with four best bets for Saturday NCAA football, games.
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College Football Odds Week 5
It’s a big week in college football, with division rivalry matchups taking place throughout the Saturday slate. No. 4 ranked Michigan head to Kinnick Stadium to face the 3-1 Iowa Hawkeyes in the BIG 10, No. 2 ranked Alabama go on the road to face the No. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks, and No. 5 ranked Clemson host an impressive No. 10 NC State in an ACC match up, with both sides undefeated through the first four games.
As always, football season is betting season, and these are my favorite picks for this Saturday's slate of college football.
Michigan vs Iowa Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
Moneyline: Michigan Wolverines -410, Iowa Hawkeyes +330
Spread: Michigan -11 -110, Iowa +11 - 110
Total: Over/Under 42.5
Michigan vs Iowa Prediction & Pick
This is a road game for the Wolverines, but their run game is punishing and I’m not sure the Hawkeyes defense can hold for four quarters.
Iowa are going to have trouble moving the football on offense, with senior quarterback Spencer Petras only managing one passing touchdown so far this season. He’s completing just 51 per cent of his passes, and this is a good Michigan defense.
It feels like a mismatch in a game against an Iowa team that isn’t high-scoring team. They rely on their run game and a sturdy defense to win games because they can’t rely on the quarterback. Fans are tired of Petras, and if this game starts to slip early, I fear for Iowa.
The Wolverines have it cooking on the ground. Blake Corum is averaging 7.5 yards per carry on 64 rushes, and has nine touchdowns through the first four games. While I like Iowa's defense, I don’t like it enough to keep Michigan out the entire game, especially if the defense has to spend the majority of the game on the field.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
Moneyline: Kentucky Wildcats +210, Ole Miss Rebels -250
Spread: Kentucky +7 -115, Ole Miss -7 -105
Total: Over/Under 54
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
This could be one of the best games of the early slate on Saturday, with the Wildcats on the road against Ole Miss.
Kentucky’s best win of their 4-0 start so far this season came in the Swamp against the Florida Gators, but if you watch the tape, they gave the Gators enough opportunities to steal victory away from them, but Florida threw it away.
Quarterback Will Levis had his cleanest game of the year last time out, going 18/26 for 303 yards and four touchdowns against the Northern Illinois Huskies. Ole Miss on the road will be a bigger test for the offense, but Levis is cooking with his group of receivers.
The Rebels have been easing in sophomore quarterback Jaxson Dart as the starter following the departure of Matt Corral in the 2022 NFL draft. Dart is gaining the respect of his teammates and proving his toughness on the field. He’s a gunslinger, and could throw himself into trouble from time to time, but an SEC matchup with Kentucky is a great chance for him to silence his doubters.
This could be a fun battle between two exciting quarterbacks, and I just feel like the Kentucky +7 is too generous. Kentucky's defense only needs to force one turnover in this game for it to be extremely close, and their pass rush is absolutely capable of doing just that.
Oklahoma vs TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
Moneyline: Oklahoma Sooners -240, TCU Horned Frogs +200
Spread: Oklahoma -6.5 -110, TCU +6.5 -110
Total: Over/Under 68.5
Oklahoma vs TCU Prediction & Pick
Now this is a match up worth watching.
TCU go into their toughest bout of the season with a 3-0 record, and quarterback Max Duggan sitting on a 77 per cent completion rate with eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Duggan has faced plenty of adversity, losing the starting job in 2021 and beginning the 2022 campaign on the sidelines. When Chandler Morris got injured in the Horned Frogs' opening game, Duggan had to step back in and hasn’t missed a beat since. Morris is back in action, and will be available for Saturday's game, but it’s Duggan getting the start. That in itself will be an interesting situation to keep an eye on.
The Sooners, on the other hand, are adjusting to life without Caleb Williams, and will have mixed emotions about the performance of Dillon Gabriel so far. The Sooners are 3-1, with a disappointing loss to the Kansas State Wildcats drawing attention to a few potential struggles offensively.
That said, Oklahoma is still scoring points. The Sooners have scored at least 33 in each of their four games so far this season, while TCU have managed at least 38 in each of their three opening games, despite an injury at QB. This game has shootout written all over it, and I can’t wait to watch.
The Pick: Over 68.5 points (-110)
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
Moneyline: Texas A&M Aggies +145, Mississippi State Bulldogs -170
Spread: Texas A&M +3.5 -115, Mississippi State -3.5 -105
Total: Over/Under 45
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
Mississippi State have the home field advantage in this tight match up against the Aggies. Both sides are 3-1 in an SEC West division that is currently wide open for the No. 2 spot behind Alabama.
The Aggies have a very special talent in running back Devon Achane. The junior star is coming into this game off the back of a career high 159 rushing yards and a touchdown, his performance helping the Aggies to an important division win and handing Arkansas their first loss of the season.
Achane is considered one of the best running backs in college football, and his wide range of skills is attracting the attention of NFL franchises already. Aggies fans are calling for Achane’s name to be mentioned in the Heisman race, and another big SEC performance might see that call answered.
The Bulldogs are finding the end zone at will themselves, with 20 offensive touchdowns of their own. They’ve found the endzone with no less than ten different skill position players, with quarterback Will Rogers able to spread the ball around offensively.
This could be another really back and forth SEC game. I like Achane to have another big game with a lot of momentum, and I think the Aggies could steal it as a result. Max Johnson has work to do at quarterback, but I’m pulling for Achane and the Aggies defense to overthrow the home team in this one.
