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Steph Curry says this is the “best stretch” for the current version of the Warriors. If that is indeed the case, they should close out the Dallas Mavericks tonight, right?

Well, recent history leads us to believe otherwise, because both the Denver Nuggets and the Memphis Grizzlies defeated Golden State in the first game when they were faced with elimination, which is exactly where the Mavs sit heading into Game 4 tonight.

The Warriors are not even favored tonight, which means the sportsbooks are working off what they saw in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Dallas is favored by 1, down from the 3.5 points they were giving Golden State in Game 3 when they gave up the dunk of the year to Andrew Wiggins and the Warriors took a commanding 3-0 lead in their Western Conference semifinal.

No NBA team has ever come all the way back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series, but three teams – the 1951 New York Knicks against the Rochester Royals in the NBA Finals, the 1994 Denver Nuggets against the Utah Jazz, and the 2003 Portland Trail Blazers against the Mavericks – have forced a Game 7 before losing it.

Eventually, someone will break the streak, which now stands at 146 consecutive series in which the team taking a 3-0 lead has gone on to win. And of those 146 teams that trailed 0-3, 56 have won a Game 4 to avoid a sweep.

So it certainly is not unprecedented for a Game 4 desperation victory, but after what we have seen from Dallas thus far, are we really willing to wager that they are not the walking dead? Which, by the way, is what the Miami Heat looked like last night against Boston.

And if we take the Heat-Celtics game as a test case, we have no choice but to discern that on any given night…

You know the rest.

So as we look toward tonight and ahead toward Wednesday’s epic Game 5 in the one series that is now tied 2-2, what leaps of faith can we take?

Well, for starters, the Mavs have been counted out before, both in the first round when they lost their opener to Utah, and in the second round when they were down 2-0 and 3-2 to Phoenix. They have been counted out so thoroughly that they are now +3000 to win the series 4-3, yet they are only +900 to lose in 7 games, while Golden State is -110 to finish the sweep tonight and +160 to win the series in 5 games.

Some advice: Rather than wager at those prices, buy a Treasury bond. Not as exciting, but it will pay off no matter what.

Anyway, there is nothing as dangerous as a cornered animal, so we have to decide whether the Mavs are that animal. We can start by assuring everyone that Luka Doncic is a beast, probably the single most talented player remaining in the playoffs. But he is getting very little help, so the trick tonight is to concoct a wagering strategy around him and the stars on the other team who will probably want to make a statement tonight to back up that "best stretch" assessment.

Doncic’s point total over/under is 34.5, which he has eclipsed in each of the last two games, scoring 42 in Game 2 and 40 in Game 3. He is +250 to score 40 again, +450 to go for 45, and +900 to go for 50. And since the game is in Dallas, we should expect him to get the benefit of the whistle as he likely tries for his highest point total since scoring a career-high 51 against the Los Angeles Clippers on Feb. 10. In that game, which came right after the Mavs traded Kristaps Prorzingis to Washington for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans, Doncic made seven 3s in the first quarter while scoring 28 of his points, with observers wondering whether it was a statement of protest over the deal that took away his Euro sidekick, or a statement that he can carry the reconfigured Mavs team all by himself.

The Warriors have not swept anybody since the 2019 Western Conference finals against Portland, and we have seen them take their foot off the gas already this postseason, most notably when they surrendered 77 first-half points and trailed by as many as 55 in Game 5 against the Grizzlies. With the way Draymond Green has been goofing off during these games, are we ready to believe that he is primed to pull out a broom tonight in Dallas?

Look, the guy who is carrying the Dubs is Steph Curry, who has made 14 3s in this series and has ceded the individual spotlight to Doncic while still getting the job done in all three games, including Game 1 when he needed to play only 31 minutes while scoring 21 points. His point total over/under is just 27.5, and he is +1000 to go for 40 or more.

If we do not see a repeat of the Warriors meltdown vs. Memphis in their first clinching opportunity (and we should not because that type of thing almost never repeats itself), what we should expect is a mano a mano shootout between Curry and Doncic, and Betway is offering an enticing line of +725 for both Curry and Doncic to score 35 points. We counsel taking both that wager and the +500 on them making at least five 3-pointers apiece.

And since Klay Thompson took 10 3-point attempts last game, making three, we do not feel it is the worst wager in the history of wagers to make a side bet at +3500 on Curry, Doncic and Thompson all making at least five 3s. Heck, we already know they are all capable, why not tonight as both teams try to make a statement – the Mavs that they are not patsies, and the Warriors that they are ready to put their foot down against someone in a closeout opportunity.

The trick with wagering at this time of the season is to take a deep dive into the player prop combo lines and ask yourself: "Is that really all that unlikely?"

As noted above with the Treasury bond reference, there are safe things we can all do with our money, and there are riskier moves that are more than plausible, and those opportunities should be seized before they are gone for the summer and we all start wagering on baseball, USFL football and golf.

Betting the spread and the over/under is easy but is usually a 50-50 proposition. We encourage our readers to aim higher. Go with the three best players going off. We are seriously overdue for that happening in these NBA playoffs.