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OK, so we are down to three NBA teams remaining. And if the folks who set the lines are to be believed, we will be down to two after tonight.

Yes, the sportsbooks are holding the Miami Heat in very low regard, making them 8.5-point underdogs tonight for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals. That is the biggest underdog line the Heat have been tagged with since January 8 when they were getting 9.5 points at Phoenix and went out and won that game by 13 points, rewarding those who backed them at +400 on the moneyline.

Miami also was an 8.5-point ‘dog at Utah on Nov. 13 and won that game by six points, and they were getting 10.5 at Golden State on January 3 and lost by 7, in large part because five players were in COVID protocols.

But looking at those three games when they were superdogs, they went 2-1 when they were given all but no chance, and the size of tonight’s line reflects the books’ belief that Boston will finish the job at home, where they were 28-13 during the regular season and have gone 5-3 during the postseason.

They are coming off a 93-80 victory in Game 5 in which Miami shot just 7-for-45 from 3-point range, including 2-for-22 from the starters. Kyle Lowry was 0-for-6 overall and 0-for-5 from 3-point range, and Max Strus was 0-for-9 overall and 0-for-7 from 3-point range. The Heat got only 42 points from their starters and 38 from their reserves, doing a terrific Oklahoma City Thunder impression.

Is this to be expected again? Two words: Hell. No.

The Heat are a heck of a lot better than they have shown during the two most recent games of this series, and coach Erik Spoelstra should be expected to have a very, very quick hook with both Lowry and Strus should they resemble a vacuum cleaner again. (What does a vacuum cleaner do? It sucks).

You can be sure that the Heat watched a videotape of Draymond Green saying “We’re going to play Boston,” following the conclusion of the Warriors’ series-clinching win. Green is a television personality because he will say just about anything, but disrespecting the Heat like that on TNT is going to come back and bite him if the unlikely happens and Miami wins the next two (the odds on that are +750). Not many expect it, but not many expected it out of Dallas when they came back from down 3-2 against Phoenix.

In a desperation situation, there is no room for bruised egos or flimsy confidence levels. Spoelstra is a disciple of Pat Riley, who is a huge proponent of the “next man up” theory. Every player on the Miami bench knows that he may be that if the Heat come out of the gate weakly again, and it would not be surprising to see Victor Oladipo and Duncan Robinson as the guards with the most minutes played when this one is all said and done.

Problem No. 1 for the Heat is their offense. They have scored 162 total points in the last two games, which we would call putrid if that was a strong enough word. At this stage of the playoffs, going for 82 and then 80 is beyond ridiculous, and the oddsmakers have set the over/under at just 201 as a result.

Part of that is Boston’s defense, and part of Miami’s frigid shooting, something they have not overcome since starting Game 5 with just 1 point over the first 8.5 minutes as they missed their first 14 shots. NBA basketball in late June is supposed feature teams that are better than that, and commissioner Adam Silver will be the first person waving bye-bye to the Heat if we see an encore tonight.

But the thinking here is that we will not. Jimmy Butler is better than what he has shown: Just 10 buckets on 40 shots over the past three games after going a combined 23-for-37 in the first two games of the series. His point total over/under is down to 22.5, and Bam Adebayo’s is just 16.5 after he had 18 last night.

And because Spoelstra will ride Butler and Adebayo for as close to 48 minutes as he can, we like the Betway offering of +1800 for Butler and Adebayo to score 25 apiece.

We also like taking the 8.5 points (-110) despite how beaten down the Heat have looked, but also because we are huge believers in Spoelstra’s tactical and motivational abilities.

Boston has most certainly looked like the better team, but as we saw from Dallas in Game 4, a cornered animal is dangerous. So we are going to advocate these single wagers: Taking the Heat and the points, taking the Butler/Adebayo 25-or-more combo, and going with the over (-110) because 201 is more befitting of a college game than an NBA game. Let’s not forget: The Game 1 total was 225 and the Game 2 total was 229.

What we will see offensively from Miami tonight will bear almost no resemblance to what we saw in Games 4 and 5.

As far as a player prop parlay goes, we like putting these picks together:

Al Horford over 1.5 3-pointers made (+130), over 10.5 points (-120) and over 1.5 turnovers (+170)

Jaylen Brown over 1.5 steals (+185) and over 0.5 blocks (+235)

Jayson Tatum over 6.5 rebounds (-110)

We will be back on Monday to preview the NBA Finals. Good luck this weekend!