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The Kansas Jayhawks are NCAA champs, and the only people who care in the NBA are the college scouts and the 11 Kansas alumni: All-Stars Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins, along with Kelly Oubre Jr., Marcus and Markieff Morris, Josh Jackson, Ben McLemore, Quentin Grimes, Devonte’ Graham, Udoka Azubuike and Ukraine’s Svi Mhyhailiuk.
It is back to professional basketball tonight after the NBA recovers from an eventful day off in which the most notable news was that Ben Simmons will not be playing for the Brooklyn Nets when the play-in games begin next week.
Whether that impacts their defense is arguable, because they were not all that much of a defensive team to begin with and they never had a chance to incorporate him into their schemes. Simmons is mostly focused on trying to recover the $20million that was withheld from his paychecks by the Philadelphia 76ers before he was dealt in the James Harden deal, and the folks at the NBA Players Association now have that on their plate. To be continued, as they say.
In the MVP race, Nikola Jokic is now the -300 favorite, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has dropped to +550 and is getting a lot of love from the ESPN commentators, most notably Stephen A. Smith. This is leaving Embiid scratching his head, as he is now the +230 second choice, and he will be back in action tonight at Indiana as there are 12 games on the slate.
Positioning for postseason award is still important here and there, and we are now beginning the final week of silly season in which we are running out of opportunities to take advantage of what we are seeing from the worst teams in the league.
Most notable is Oklahoma City, who defeated the best team in the NBA, the Phoenix Suns, on Sunday behind a triple-double from Alexej Pokusevski, who you should remember as a Most Improved Player candidate for next season. Got that? You heard it here first.
Let’s take a close look at tonight’s slate, because as we said above, there are wagering opportunities that will be expiring before you know it.
Philadelphia (-11.5) at Indiana: Harden is coming off a triple-double, Embiid is consistently outstanding, and the Pacers are playing out the string as their rebuild centers more and more around Tyrese Haliburton, who had 17 assists and no turnovers Sunday against Detroit.
Embiid scored 44 in his last outing and now trails LeBron James for the league scoring lead by just one-tenth of a point, with James needing to play in two of the fading Lakers’ final four games in order to qualify. Embiid’s over/under of 33.5 points is the highest we have seen all season and gives us pause. We like Tobias Harris under 16.5 points (-115) and Haliburton over whatever assist number is posted if it is around 9.5.
Cleveland (-8.5) at Orlando: The Cavs have dropped to seventh and will be a play-in team, and there is concern now that Jarrett Allen’s broken finger will keep him sidelined for the postseason. This is not good for Cleveland, which was a powerful team when their All-Star center was healthy. They have lost three of four and are playing the same team they defeated by six points at home two Mondays ago. Moses Brown is now their man in the middle, and Darius Garland is their only consistent producer.
The Magic have lost six in a row and are tied with Houston for the league’s worst record. They have no incentive tonight. Give the points (-105). (Side note: Brown is +325 to have a single assist. If he gets one, it will be his first in 12 games with the Cavs. He has a grand total of one all season).
Houston (+17) at Brooklyn: The Rockets are going to jack up more 3-pointers than you could ever imagine, and the Nets remain a horrid home team, both in terms of wins and losses and against the spread (they are a league-worst 8-29-1). So take all of those points (-105), and go with Jalen Green (-115) and Kevin Porter (-165) both going over 3.5 3-pointers made. If they fail, it will not be for a lack of trying.
Charlotte (+5.5) at Miami: The Heat are trying to wrap up first place in the East, while the Hornets are trying to secure homecourt advantage for a 9-10 game while also hoping to rise into the No. 8 spot ahead of the Atlanta Hawks. So with both teams incentivized, the under of 225.5 appears too low. Also, Hornets games have gone over by 29 and 15.5 the past two times they have played. Over is your play (-110).
Atlanta (+4) at Toronto: Another double incentivized game, as the Raptors need to stay ahead of the Cavs to avoid the play-in (they lose a tiebreaker against Cleveland) and the Hawks need to stay ahead of the Hornets (their tiebreaker is too close to call). Both these teams are strong defensively, and we should see that come out tonight. Go with under 226.5 (-110), and DeAndre Hunter over 3.5 rebounds (-115).
Milwaukee (-5) at Chicago: If we are going to continue to see a late push for MVP by Antetokounmpo, we will see it tonight after he was “held” to 28 points in a nationally televised loss to Dallas on Sunday. The player prop we like is Nikola Vucevic over 9.5 rebounds (-120), because he is starting against Brook Lopez, who has never seen a rebound he did not want to shy away from.
Washington (+12) at Minnesota: Wizards point guard Tomas Satoransky has been consistently going over his assists over/under, and tonight he will have to go against Patrick Beverley, one of the league’s best on-the-ball defenders. Go with the Czech kid over 6.5 assists (+105), and go with over 238 (-105) because the Wolves hammer bad teams. Stay away from the spread. It looks to be right on point.
Portland (+4.5) at Oklahoma City: Say it with me: “Poku!!!” The 7-footer from Serbia who played point guard Sunday has been doing it all. It is too unlikely that he will get another triple-double, isn’t it? Well, he is going against a Portland team that has been mailing it in for more than a month and should be listed as a bigger ‘dog than this (the Blazers have failed to cover in six of seven). These teams combined for 165 points on March 28, and we should see a repeat tonight. Give the points (-110) and go over 222 (-110), which appears to be way too low. Poku is worth a triple-double flyer at +1300.
Memphis (+5.5) at Utah: When exactly are the books going to give the Grizzlies their props? They are the second-best team in the West, and they have the league’s longest winning streak at seven games. Boost your parlay by playing them on the money line at +175.
San Antonio (+9) at Denver: The Spurs own the tiebreaker edge over the Lakers, but their schedule is tough with games against the Nuggets, Wolves, Warriors and Mavs. They are outclassed against Jokic, who has scored 35, 22 and 32 in three games against them, two of them victories. With the Spurs incentivized by a possible play-in spot on the line this week, which seemed extraordinarily unlikely just a month ago, take a shot at them keeping this one close, and take the points (-110).
New Orleans (-7.5) at Sacramento: The Kings have been getting crushed and failing to cover against good teams, and we have to include the Pels among the list of “good” teams because they are ninth in the West and are incentivized to lock into the that spot so that they play their initial play-in game at home. Give the points (-110) and take Damian Jones to have a double-double at +325.
L.A. Lakers (+11.5) at Phoenix: El Lay keeps having must-win games that they just cannot seem to win, and all eyes will be on LeBron James’ injury status leading up to tipoff. The guy is a gamer and is not going to give up without a fight, but he also has a gimpy 37-year-old sprained ankle that is going to heal on its own pace. Hard to see the Suns having much incentive to do anything her except go through the motions, so go ahead and take the points (-110) as long as James is going to play. Also, Anthony Davis going over anything south of 23 when his line is posted.