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If the MVP race is going to have a change at the top, it is going to happen based upon what transpires tonight in Philadelphia.

That is where Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic will go at each other on a busy NBA Monday facilitated by the start of the NCAA college tournament beginning later this week. This is the point of the NBA season where teams are looking at a one of two things: The upcoming playoffs, or the upcoming draft and who is going to raise their stock over the next couple of weeks in the NCAAs.

Of course, the individual award races continue in The Associated, and it is more or less a two-man race for MVP between the guy from Cameroon and the guy from Serbia who won the award last year. Embiid is the -145 favorite with Jokic the +170 second choice. The only other player with odds shorter that 10-1 is Giannis Antetokounmpo at +750.

So let’s take a look at how the two stack up against each other while noting that both have carried their teams in the absence of significant sidekicks: the since departed Ben Simmons in Philadelphia and the injured Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. in Denver.

Jokic leads the NBA with 18 triple-doubles and has his team in sixth place in the West with a 40-28 record. He is the league leader in rebounding, player efficiency rating, win shares, plus/minus and value over replacement player. Embiid leads the league in points per game (29.77) with a miniscule edge over LeBron James (29.73) and Antetokounmpo (29.68), and you can bet your bottom dollar that the scoring title means something to LeBron at his advanced age, 37.

But then you have “the narrative,” which is the storyline impacting the season that plays an outsized role in impacting some voters’ ballots. The narrative says that this is Embiid’s year because he finished second a season ago, he carried the Sixers when a key teammate quit on the team and he played so dominantly in Simmons’ absence that he actually made Philly James Harden’s preferred destination. Embiid also plays in a more high-profile market, which should not matter but does.

So the call here is to stay away from the MVP race, unless Jokic is so dominant tonight and outplays Embiid to such a degree that he will prompt enough voters to flip the top of their ballot and list the Joker first, which means +170 is tantalizing. But right now the best wager out there can only be made with your peeps: Who will finish fourth in the balloting behind Jokic/Embiid and the Greek Freak? We will work on getting that on the board here at Betway.

We have a full slate of games tonight with the NBA taking a back seat to the collegians this week, which we all know will be marked by Charles Barkley mispronouncing names and distinguishing himself for his utter lack of college hoops knowledge, aside from the fact that Chet Holmgren is so skinny he needs to run around in the shower to get wet. A bunch of NBA teams are playing out the string and have become somewhat predictable, so we will embrace their misery and proceed accordingly on our parlay card.

So let’s have at it:

L.A. Clippers (+5.5 at Cleveland): The Clips are plodding through a short trip to the East, making stop No. 3 in Cleveland after winning in Detroit and losing at Atlanta. They are facing a Cavs team that is still trying to figure out how to win without All-Star Jarrett Allen (broken finger), learning Saturday night that moving Kevin Love (10 points and 11 rebounds in 34 minutes of a loss to Chicago) into the starting lineup is not enough to replace what Allen was giving them. The Clippers have been playing low-scoring games, failing to go over in seven of their past nine. So the play we like is under 211.5 (-110), the lowest O/U on the board tonight, along with Darius Garland going over 8.5 assists (-125).

Portland (+14) at Atlanta: Just when it looked like the Blazers were easy to figure out, they went out Saturday and defeated Washington in the Rose City in what will be their lone home game in a stretch of 10 contests. This game starts a five-game Eastern trip that will also take Chauncey Billups’ team to New York, Brooklyn, Indiana and Detroit, the Blazers just a game out of the 10th playoff spot in the West behind New Orleans. Portland, however, is in full tank mode with its last six losses coming by 38, 43, 14, 30, 32 and 37. Swallow hard and give the points (-110) along with Josh Hart over 28.5 points, rebounds and assists combined (-110).

Denver (+1.5) at Philadelphia: The Sixers are coming off the wake-up call they had Thursday night against Brooklyn when Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and their quiet new teammate ran the Sixers out of their own building, followed by an overtime victory Sunday over the Magic in which the Sixers had to rally from 10 points down in the fourth. The sting of the Nets loss is clearly significant, and the Nuggets should keep this close if not win. Take the points (-110).

Charlotte (-10) at Oklahoma City: None if the current 20 postseason teams allow more points per game than the Hornets (114.6), but nobody in the entire NBA scores fewer points than the Thunder (102.6). So which trend will hold? Well, OKC has lost five straight and eight of 10 but had hone over in nine of 11. The over/under for this one is 231, and the Hornets have gone over in seven of eight games when they have been favored on the road. So the over (-110) is your play.

Minnesota (-4) at San Antonio: The Wolves are 39-30 and sneaky good, and what they are trying to do between now and the end of the regular season is catch the Nuggets, who they are 2-1 against, or the Mavericks, who they have split a pair of games with. No way they’ll be looking past all-time winningest NBA coach Gregg Popovich, who rested his regulars in a loss to the Pacers on Saturday. But can Minnesota cover? They Wolves are 11-3-0 on over/unders as a road favorite, so the pick here is “over” the large line of 238.5 (-110).

Washington (+12.5) at Golden State: There is an upset special somewhere on the board. But is it here? The Wizards are 0-3 as they wrap up a four-game Western trip, and they are running into a slumping Steph Curry (yes, you have heard that before). The thought here is that Curry’s slump will continue but that the Warriors will get a huge boost from the return of Draymond Green. The play is Kyle Kuzma to have a double-double (+245).

Chicago (-4) at Sacramento: We can debate until the cows come home whether the Bulls are equipped to make a deep run in the East given their struggled against the better teams from their own conference, but that has little bearing on this non-conference game against a Kings team that has four straight and n nine of 11. Give the points (-110) and take DeAaron Fox over 25.5 points (+100).

Milwaukee (-1.5) at Utah: The second half of the ESPN doubleheader brings us the defending champs that nobody ever talks about, with Giannis having gone 15 games since his last triple-double. He had seven of them last season and has only four this season, and we feel he is due at the enticing price of +825 (but keep it off your parlay card).

Toronto (-4.5) at L.A. Lakers: As alluded to above, the scoring title means something to James, and we expect him to turn up the scoring volume over the remainder of the regular season while he and his geriatric teammates continue to await to return of savior Anthony Davis. The Lakers are horrid defensively and cannot be counted on to stop anybody, and from a wagering standpoint the thing to do is ride the guy who is a proven commodity, James, while ignoring everything else about this matchup. Take the “over” on his line of 30.5 points (-110).