NBA betting: Best value bets for Tuesday night
Chris Sheridan picks out seven value bets for Tuesday night's NBA doubleheader, as the Knicks face the Nets before the Warriors take on the Suns.
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One big question hangs over the NBA tonight: Who is going to win the epic matchup of two teams with 23 straight wins between them, the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns?
Someone has to lose, right? Well maybe not in regulation, and if you think this one is going overtime, you can grab that wager at +975 and then sit back and have an extra cocktail as you enjoy five extra minutes of what should be one of the best basketball games we have seen all season. (The Suns have not had an OT game this season, so you could say they are due).
The final day of November is upon us, and tonight’s TNT doubleheader is a dandy. It begins with the Knicks playing the Nets in Brooklyn with New York using a new starting point guard, Alec Burks, as offseason trophy acquisition Kemba Walker has been relegated to the bench. The Knicks and Nets have a pretty strong rivalry in the city where Mayor Bill DeBlasio is trying to get all horse-drawn carriages taken off the streets, thereby making the Anarchy Capital of America even less appealing to tourists.
When the Nets lose, they lose big. Five of their six losses this season have been by double digits.
And the Knicks have played better on the road (6-3) than they have at home (5-6). The line is Brooklyn minus 6.5, and the nightcap has the Suns favored by two after they opened as 2.5-point favorites.
Let’s attack these one at a time:
A couple things to know about Brooklyn: They just learned that they will be without Joe Harris for 4-8 weeks after he undergoes ankle surgery, and coach Steve Nash has moved Patty Mills, DeAndre Bembry and LaMarcus Aldridge into the starting lineup while also making veteran James Johnson his most utilized reserve. Brooklyn is coming off a six-point home loss to the Suns in which James Harden was booed for his 4-for-15 shooting performance (including 0-for-6 on 3s) while nonetheless recording a triple-double. Still Kevin Durant is tied with Steph Curry for the league lead in scoring at 28.6 points per game on a career-best 54.8 shooting percentage.
Durant’s point total over/under is 28.5, which makes sense. His 3-pointers made over/under is 2.5, and he is coming off a game in which he made four of them on seven attempts and scored 39. “He’s the best player in the league, for sure. Never seen a 7-footer that skilled,” the Knicks’ Julius Randle said. Durant played the Knicks only once last season (at Madison Square Garden) and went 3-for-5 on 3s. Because he went 0-for-4 and 1-for-4 from distance in the two victories before the Phoenix loss, we counsel leaving that one alone.
Harden scored only 12 points against Phoenix and has a point total over/under of 22.5 tonight. He will be defended by the taller Burks as Thibodeau shortens his rotation from 10 players to nine and goes with his best defenders. If Walker was still the starter, this would be a lock over. Against Burks, it is a question mark. Again, stay away.
The 30-year-old Burks logged 39 minutes and went 4-for-7 from distance in the Knicks’ victory at Atlanta on Saturday, scoring 23 points. His 3-pointers made over/under seems about right at 2.5, but his point total over/under of 15.5 appears to perhaps be set too low. So consider that one. Burks is Thibodeau’s guy now, and he will be the second offensive option behind Julius Randle, especially if R.J. Barrett (non-COVID-related illness) does not play. Barrett is listed as questionable.
Randle, coming off two single-digit scoring games (he had only one last season) has a point total over/under of 20.5, and a rebounds over/under of 9.5. Given his cold streak, making that point total number seems like a reach, but the number that he should hit is the over on rebounds. He has grabbed double-figure boards in four of the past five games and averages 10.2. Still, we counsel staying away. Anyone who resembles a leaky faucet (runs hot and cold) is too hard to predict.
This is a hard one to handicap because of all the changes both coaches have made to their rotations, but heck, tough ones are our specialty. So we like this role player parlay: Patty Mills under 0.5 blocks, LaMarcus Aldridge over 6.5 rebounds, Randle under 2.5 3-pointers made and the Knicks to cover the spread.
The nightcap is a doozy and will be all that everyone outside of New York will be talking about tomorrow. The Suns are within one victory for the franchise record for consecutive wins, but they are going against the NBA’s “it” team and the prohibitive favorite to win the MVP award, Curry. His odds currently +135 on the Betway Sportsbook.
Golden State has the NBA’s best record against the spread (15-4-1) but is going up against an underrated team that went to the NBA Finals last season when nobody expected it. The over/under of 221.5 is the second-highest on the board tonight among the five NBA games, and the Warriors are tied with the Thunder for the worst over/under record in the league at 6-14-0. So, yes, we like the under (the only wager that you are already winning, always, when the game begins).
The player props are where you have to look for your best opportunities, so let’s start with Curry, who has gone for 32 and 33 points in his last two games and has knocked down 19 3-pointers in his past three games. His point total over/under (29.5) and 3-pointers made over/under (5.5) seem about right. In two games against the Suns last season he went 5-for-10 on 3s in a loss and 1-for-11 on 3s in a win. Advice: Stay away. Leaky faucet. And find your props elsewhere.
DeAndre Ayton is a player we are keying on in this game because he is up against the overmatched Kevon Looney and should step up his game in front of a national television audience as he heads into restricted free agency next summer. He has not made a 3-pointer since the season opener and has attempted only five all season, none in the past four games. Yes there is an over/under on made 3s of 0.5, which looks like the lock of the night as an “under.”
Draymond Green is averaging 7.8 assists and 7.8 rebounds, but he rarely gets big numbers in both categories on the same night. There is a prop on his 3-pointers made of 0.5, and since he hasn’t made one in the past five games we like that streak to continue and for you to play the “under.”
Got that? Three unders in the nightcap, including the point total. Your best payoff will come through a parlay. And if you are feeling especially lucky, combine the four picks from the first game and the three from the nightcap and bundle all seven of them together. The only better bet is that politicians around the world will be fearmongering and changing their minds again tomorrow. That one is as big of a lock as the sun rising in the East. Good luck!