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The Miami Heat will host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight at the FTX Arena in Miami in what is set to be an important matchup in the NBA’s Eastern Conference.

The Cavs are currently fourth while the Miami Heat sit seventh in the rankings, with both teams winning their last two games. The Heat are chasing the Brooklyn Nets, who are currently two wins ahead, while the Cavs are two games back from the Philadelphia 76ers in third place.

Cleveland have faced a tough road stretch in recent weeks, losing their last three to the Sixers, Celtics, and Atlanta Hawks. They will be looking to get back on track down in Miami against a Heat team playing its fifth home game in a row.

Best NBA Same Game Parlay Picks Today for Cavaliers vs Heat: 4-Leg Parlay Picks (+600)

Total Points Line

Today’s NBA same game parlay predictions kicks off with the points total between two of the toughest teams in the NBA to score on right now.

Tonight’s game between the Cavs and the Heat features the two teams allowing the fewest points per game in the NBA so far this season. The Cavs have been stubborn defensively all season long, allowing just 106.6 PPG, while the Heat are giving up 109.1. These are the only two teams in the league averaging less than 110 points allowed per game.

The two teams are both top three in points allowed in the paint too, and Cleveland also rank top in three-point attempts allowed per game.

While there’s no doubt in my mind that this is going to be a hard-fought contest with a lack of wide open looks or easy makes in the paint, the over/under line is set low in anticipation of that. That said, I still feel good about it. Here’s why.

Miami Heat have scored 117 points or more in each of their last three games, but their record against the league's best trends towards low-scoring games whether they win or lose. If you look at their past six games against the Sixers, Bucks, Cavs, and Celtics they’ve scored more than 101 points just once, and that stretch included a 100-97 win against Cleveland last time out.

The Heat win these games by keeping their opponents quiet, and they did that against the Cavs last time out by holding both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to 16 points apiece. The trend favors the under, so I’m going that way with the first of my NBA same game parlay picks today.

Leg-1 SGP Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Under 214.5 Points (-115)

Jimmy Butler Points Line

The Miami Heat look to Jimmy Butler in big games when scoring options are limited. Butler has the ability to flip a switch when playing in tight games against tough opponents. He can make his way into the paint, hit jumpers, fadeaways, and get to the free throw line, and heats up the closer these games get down the stretch.

Jimmy Butler has scored 20+ points in five of his last seven games, and has managed 23 or more in four of his last five against Philly, Milwaukee and Cleveland. He’s the man the Heat turn to on the big stage, and when Cleveland closes down three-point looks and stands tall in the paint against Bam Adebayo, Butler will be taking the ball inside himself. I’m confident in Jimmy scoring 20 points and prefer this line to his assists by far.

Leg-2 SGP Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 20 Points (-200)

Evan Mobley Points and Rebounds Line

Evan Mobley has been a pleasure to watch this season. His game is going from strength to strength and he went into March having had the best month of his season so far, averaging over 19 PPG with 8.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists in February.

The Cavaliers forward had 17 rebounds in the overtime win against the Boston Celtics last time out, and has managed at least 11 in each of his last three games. While I don’t expect the Miami Heat to put up anywhere near the same volume of shots as the Celtics, Mobley should still come out of this game with at least eight rebounds, and I’m then backing him to hit 17+ points to reach the 25+ points and rebounds line set for tonight’s game.

The Heat have a mismatch against Mobley tonight. Newly acquired Kevin Love is day-to-day and new to the starting five, and Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Jarrett Allen, which could open up some decent looks for Evan Mobley. 

Leg-3 SGP Pick: Evan Mobley Over 25 Points and Rebounds (-140)

Darius Garland Points Line

I’m feeling more of a quiet night for Darius Garland against the Heat to round out this NBA same game parlay.

When Garland gets hot and finds a rhythm, he can easily hit 20+ points, but the Miami Heat are disruptive and Garland is going to have plenty of Jimmy Butler to deal with on the road.

The Cavs guard has averaged over 22 PPG for the past couple of months, but that average is made up of performances in the high 20s and low 30s paired with several nights in the teens.

The Miami Heat are a stubborn team defensively and Garland won’t have much freedom from behind the arc or driving to the basket. Both he and Donovan Mitchell had 16 points each in the last matchup with the Miami Heat.

Leg 4 SGP Pick: Darius Garland Under 20.5 Points (-150)

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